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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Guinea Bissau is a fragile state with a long history of political instability. Poverty is high with about 67 percent of the population living below the poverty line of US$1.90 per day. The economy relies heavily on the production and exports of unprocessed cashew nuts, making most households highly vulnerable to cashew nut price shocks and climate change risks.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Guinea Bissau is a fragile state with a long history of political instability. Poverty is high with about 67 percent of the population living below the poverty line of US$1.90 per day. The economy relies heavily on the production and exports of unprocessed cashew nuts, making most households highly vulnerable to cashew nut price shocks and climate change risks.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This regional consultation IMF staff report for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) highlights that growth remained strong in 2018, the fiscal deficit narrowed by 1/2 percentage point of GDP, external reserves increased, and important banking reforms were put in place, including the introduction of Basel II/III standards. The medium-term outlook remains positive despite somewhat less favorable global conditions, but critically hinges on planned fiscal consolidation and structural reforms to improve competitiveness and allow the private sector to become the main engine of growth. Other risks relate to terms-of-trade and weather shocks, and a difficult security situation in some countries. The report also discusses that collectively adhering to fiscal consolidation commitments, with a greater focus on domestic revenue mobilization and more effective control of below-the-line operations, is essential to lower risks of public debt distress, support international reserves, and preserve external viability. Structural policies aimed at improving competitiveness and growth inclusiveness are critical to reducing vulnerabilities to external shocks, building external buffers, stimulating private-sector-led growth, and making the growth momentum sustainable.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Guinea–Bissau’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for Extension and Augmentation of Access, and Financing Assurances Review. Program implementation for the fifth review has been good. All performance criteria and indicative targets were met, as were six of eight structural benchmarks, with one of the remaining two benchmarks subsequently completed and the other under way. Economic activity has remained robust. Real GDP grew by an estimated 5.9 percent in 2017, with consumer price inflation of 1.1 percent and an external current account deficit of 0.5 percent of GDP. The IMF staff supports completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement, extension of the arrangement, and augmentation of access.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper explains the cashew economy and the unfolding of the 2017 campaign. At least half of all households are thought to be engaged in production, commercialization, or exportation of cashew nuts. The activity has at least four macroeconomic impacts: one, it injects liquidity to producers; two, owing to producers’ high propensity to consume, it impacts the price level; third, it is the main provider of foreign exchange via exports; and fourth, it is an important source of fiscal revenues. Despite streamlining of marketing arrangements over the years, cashew production is still subject to significant government intervention. Vested interests have traditionally permeated public policies, with nontransparent issuance of licenses and permits used in some instances to block competition. Cashew production started to expand during the 1980s and yearly output has over the years increased to currently about 200,000 tons. Native of north Brazil, cashew trees were introduced by the Portuguese during the colonial period but output remained negligible through to the country’s independence in 1973.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Guinea–Bissau’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), and Financing Assurances Review. Program implementation for the third review has been satisfactory. Four of five PCs, three of four indicative targets, and six of eight structural benchmarks were met. Corrective measures have been taken in the remaining areas, with several steps already completed. Economic activity has remained robust and there has been good progress in improving public financial management. Maintaining the positive economic momentum will require further strengthening of public financial management to reduce the fiscal deficit and support macroeconomic stability.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper aims at identifying some of the main channels of transmission through which political instability feeds and foster fragility and provide an estimate of the “fragility gap” that haunts the Bissau-Guinean society. This paper argued that, until today, due to chronic political instability, Guinea-Bissau has been in a costly fragility trap. This analytical piece argues that the major factor behind Guinea-Bissau’s fragility has been the chronic political instability. It also uncovers some of the main transmission channels from political instability to fragility and provides simple estimates about the cost of instability. Estimates based on reasonable assumptions reveal that, considering only Guinea-Bissau’s post-war period, without chronic political instability real GDP per capita could have been at least two thirds higher than its 2013 level. This assessment shows the crucial importance of the security sector reform. It also shows that the current estimated cost of the security sector reform is modest in comparison, since it puts into perspective its monetary costs—which are easy to calculate and mostly frontloaded—vis-à-vis its wide and deep benefits, which are not as explicit and accrue over time.
International Monetary Fund
This 2011 Article IV Consultation reviews Côte d’Ivoire’s economic condition. Côte d’Ivoire is emerging from a decade-long sociopolitical crisis that has held back its economic growth. In 2009, Côte d’Ivoire adopted an economic and financial program supported by a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with the aim of ensuring a stable macroeconomic framework, promoting sustained growth, and reducing poverty. Executive Directors have commended Côte d’Ivoire’s rapid progress in reviving the economy. Directors have also welcomed the authorities’ good performance under the economic recovery program, especially the prudent budgetary stance.