This paper focuses on Ukraine’s Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2015 Extended Arrangement. Sound fiscal and monetary policies since the 2014–2015 crisis have resulted in a sharp reduction in Ukraine’s external and internal imbalances. Public debt was put on a downward path, inflation has declined, and international reserves have recovered. The new Stand-By Arrangement will provide an anchor for the authorities’ efforts to address the impact of the crisis, while ensuring macroeconomic stability and safeguarding achievements to date. Together with support from the World Bank and the European Union, it will help address large financing needs. The program will focus on safeguarding medium-term fiscal sustainability, preserving central bank independence and the flexible exchange rate, and enhancing financial stability while recovering the costs from bank resolutions. The National Bank of Ukraine has skillfully managed monetary policy during a very challenging period. Central Bank independence should be preserved, and monetary and exchange rate policies should continue to provide a stable anchor in the context of the inflation-targeting regime, while allowing orderly exchange rate adjustment and preventing liquidity stress.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the potential to improve government efficiency and reduce opportunities for corruption in Russia by further improving fiscal transparency. The analysis presented here is in the context of the 2018 Framework for Enhanced IMF Engagement in Governance, which supports more systematic, candid, and even-handed engagement with member countries on this issue. The cross-country evidence presented confirms that fiscal transparency is broadly and robustly correlated with better outcomes. Improved outcomes include lower financing costs, better efficiency of public investment and revenue collection, and improved corruption perceptions. The IMF’s fiscal transparency evaluations provide an alternative to the Open Budget Survey. In order to investigate the possibility of omitted variables, data presents result from panel regressions on the impact of fiscal transparency on corruption perceptions. Although regressions analysis can mitigate the risk of omitted variables, it leaves the issue of causality unresolved. Fully disentangling all the causal links among corruption, institutions, and economic development may not be feasible.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review. The economy of Ukraine has stabilized and is showing signs of a gradual recovery. Following a severe economic crisis, activity is picking up, inflation has receded quickly, and confidence is improving. International reserves have doubled to more than US$14 billion. Continued policy implementation is needed to achieve program objectives, given the still significant challenges lying ahead. The IMF staff supports the completion of the second review, and the authorities’ requests for waivers of the missed PCs, rephasing of access, and financing assurances review.
This paper analyzes the linkages between governance quality and country stress events. It focuses on two types of events: fiscal and political stress events, for which two innovative stress indicators are introduced. The results suggest that weaker governance quality is associated with a higher incidence of both fiscal and political stress events. In particular, internal accountability, which measures the responsiveness of governments to improving the quality of the bureaucracy, public service provision, and respect for the institutional framework in place, is positively associated with fiscal stress events. However, external accountability, which captures government accountability before the public in general, through elections and the democratic process, seems to be more important for political stress events. These results hold when using balanced country samples where region, oil-exporter status, income level, and time are taken into account.
This report focuses on the observance of standards and codes for the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF-40), recommendations for anti-money laundering (AML), and nine special recommendations combating the financing of terrorism (CFT) for the Russian Federation. Laundered money is often invested in real estate or security instruments. The report reveals that the Russian authorities are well aware of the money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF) schemes used in Russia. Many ML schemes also involve the misuse of (foreign) legal entities and financial institutions.
Mr. John Thornton, Fabian Bornhorst, and Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
The recent development literature stresses that countries that receive large revenues from natural resource endowments typically raise less revenue from domestic taxation, and that this creates governance problems because the lower domestic tax effort reduces the incentive for the public scrutiny of government. Our results from a panel of 30 hydrocarbon producing countries indicate that the offset between hydrocarbon revenues and revenues from other domestic sources is about 20 percent but that it is invariant to governance indicators.
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek and Mr. Julian Berengaut
The paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a crosssection model stressing two major factors-conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of the transition to the subsequent path for the development of market-related institutions. Institutional development (as proxied by measures of corruption) is used as an intermediate variable. An instrumental variable approach is followed to derive estimates that are not biased by the possible endogeneity of corruption with respect to output developments. Assuming that the extent of Soviet legacies was positively correlated with the length of the communist rule allows us to use the years under the Soviet regime as an instrument.