This paper studies private investment in India against the backdrop of a significant investment
decline over the past decade. We analyze the potential causes of weaker investment at the firm
level, using both firm-level financial statements and a novel dataset on firms’ investment project
decisions, and find that financial frictions have played a role in the slowdown. Firms with higher
financial leverage invest less, as do firms with lower earnings relative to their interest expenses.
Consistent with the notion of credit constraints leading to pro-cyclical investment, we also find
that firms with higher leverage are (i) less likely to undertake new investment projects, (ii) less
likely to complete investment projects once begun, and (iii) undertake shorter-term investment
The simulated results of this paper show that New Keynesian DSGE models with capital accumulation can generate substantial persistencies in the dynamics of the main economic variables, due to the stock nature of capital. Empirical estimates on U.S. data from 1960:I to 2008:I show the response of monetary policy to inflation was almost twice lower than traditionally considered, as capital accumulation creates an additional channel of influence through real interest rates in the production sector. Versions of the model with indeterminacy empirically outperform determinate versions. This paper allows for the reconsideration of previous findings and has significant monetary policy implications.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Over the past decade, countries recovering from war and civil unrest have received substantial amounts of postconflict aid designed to address their humanitarian emergencies, rebuild destroyed infrastructure, and restore public services. In a new IMF Working Paper, Dimitri Demekas (Advisor, European I Department); Jimmy McHugh (Resident Representative in Armenia); and Theodora Kosma (Athens University of Economics and Business) examine the impact of postconflict aid on an economy. Demekas talked with the IMF Survey about the new study.
This paper analyzes the implications of growing international economic integration for the conduct of structural policy. Section I points out that the internationalization of financial intermediation has raised the welfare costs associated with domestic distortions. The growing importance of structural policies in affecting domestic demand in a more integrated world economy is discussed in Section II. It is shown that domestic distortions reduce the effect of expansionary policy on the domestic economy. Section III examines the international transmission of unilateral structural policies. Section IV discusses the need for the international coordination of structural policies. Section V identifies structural areas in which international policy coordination is most urgent.