This paper presents key findings of the Sixth Review for Tajikistan under the Extended Credit Facility. Real GDP growth for 2011 reached 7.4 percent, driven mainly by agriculture, construction, and services. The authorities plan to maintain a conservative fiscal stance in line with the macroeconomic framework agreed during recent reviews, targeting a deficit of 0.5 percent of GDP. The fiscal stance for 2012 remains appropriate, but further consolidation will be necessary over the medium term to maintain fiscal and external sustainability.
Economic activity in Tajikistan continues to recover from the global crisis, but a range of vulnerabilities remain. Real GDP grew at an estimated 7.5 percent through the first nine months of 2011. The political environment appears broadly stable, but there are underlying tensions. The worst of the food and fuel price shocks has been weathered without civil unrest, partly owing to measures to ensure supplies, higher remittances, and a general understanding by the population that remedies are limited given resource constraints.
This paper presents the Fund’s net income outcome for FY 2010. The actual outcomes in this paper follow the closing of the Fund’s accounts for the financial year and completion of the FY 2010 external audit conducted by Deloitte & Touche, the Fund’s external auditor. The paper also provides an update on the restructuring costs incurred during FY 2010.
Tajikistan was hit by severe external shocks in 2009. The government plans to address the structural energy deficit and achieve energy independence. Tajikistan should proceed with care on the Roghun project, paying close attention to social, macroeconomic, and debt sustainability. The need is to strike a careful balance between social and capital spending, which are complementary for growth. Macroeconomic policies are appropriate, but the weakened health of the banking sector and of state-owned enterprises needs to be addressed urgently.