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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

First Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Gabon

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Gabon’s First Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PCs) and Modifications of PCs, and Financing Assurances Review. The short-term outlook remains challenging. Although a growth rebound in 2018 is expected given recent developments in foreign direct investment inflows and better-than-previously projected activity in the oil and mining sectors, weaknesses in non-oil revenue collections and tight short-term liquidity conditions are sources of fiscal risk. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the first review, and modification of PCs for end-December 2017.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses the CEMAC Regional convergence framework that aims at ensuring that national policies are consistent with a smooth functioning of CEMAC’s economic and monetary union. Established in 1999, a few years after the 1994 devaluation, as part of the Convergence and Stability Pact, it aims at addressing the coordination challenges posed by CEMAC’s common monetary policies and decentralized fiscal policies. CEMAC Regional convergence framework aims at ensuring that national policies are consistent with a smooth functioning of CEMAC’s economic and monetary union. Established in 1999, a few years after the 1994 devaluation, as part of the Convergence and Stability Pact, it aims at addressing the coordination challenges posed by CEMAC’s common monetary policies and decentralized fiscal policies. Owing in part to the weaknesses, the fiscal convergence framework has not been sufficient to prevent a sharp deterioration in public accounts over the last few years.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the structure of the financial sector in Chad and describes the key macro-financial linkages. Macro-financial linkages in Chad are driven by a government sector that dominates economic activities in the more modern sectors of the economy, thanks to oil-related revenues. The main macro-financial linkages are indirect through the associated sharp fiscal adjustment and the government’s quest for additional financing. Direct credit risks linked to the oil sector appear limited. However, there seems to be a link between declining oil prices and deteriorating banking soundness indicators. The current economic conditions negatively affect private companies dependent on public contracts, potentially hitting the health of banks’ loan portfolios.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Gabon’s growth performance has recently been strong, but fiscal pressures have increased significantly. Real GDP growth has averaged about 6 percent in the last four years on the back of substantial scaling-up of capital spending as the authorities implement their strategy Plan Stratégique Gabon Emergent to promote economic diversification and growth inclusiveness. The medium-term growth outlook has weakened as a result of the sharp decline in oil prices, but is expected to remain relatively strong. Growth is expected to be driven by a number of projects under way in agro-industry, mining, and wood processing.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Gabon’s growth performance has recently been strong, but fiscal pressures have increased significantly. Real GDP growth has averaged about 6 percent in the last four years on the back of substantial scaling-up of capital spending as the authorities implement their strategy Plan Stratégique Gabon Emergent to promote economic diversification and growth inclusiveness. The medium-term growth outlook has weakened as a result of the sharp decline in oil prices, but is expected to remain relatively strong. Growth is expected to be driven by a number of projects under way in agro-industry, mining, and wood processing.

Ms. Dalia S Hakura, Mr. Adrian Alter, Matteo Ghilardi, Mr. Rodolfo Maino, Mr. Cameron McLoughlin, and Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
The Republic of Congo has seen dramatic improvement in its debt situation since 2010, following debt relief through the IMF and World Bank Heavily Indebted Poor Countries/Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. Large oil revenues have allowed the country to boost spending and increase foreign exchange reserves. Yet poverty and inequality remain comparatively high. This paper examines Congo’s challenge to manage its natural resource revenue and attain sustained inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper proposes a strategy that could mitigate the adverse effect of fiscal consolidation on inequality and poverty in the Republic of Congo. The paper reviews income inequality and poverty trend and describes the redistributive role of fiscal policy in the Republic of Congo. It also discusses how fiscal consolidation can contribute to achieving distributional objectives through tax and expenditure policy reforms. The R