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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores revamping the West African Economic and Monetary Union’s fiscal framework. The new set of fiscal rules should be improved via various supporting arrangements. Those include an escape clause, and broader mechanisms for assessment, accountability, enforcement, and discipline, as well as possibly additional operational frameworks based on intermediate and complementary targets. The fiscal strategy should also crucially encompass efforts towards increasing domestic revenues. The countries’ debt dynamics were affected not only by the fiscal deficit but also by stock flow adjustments. The level of debt in any given year is a function of the previous year’s debt, fiscal deficit, a nominal growth effect, an exchange rate effect, a guarantees effect, and a residual. Simulations show that bringing stock flow adjustments (SFA) under control is essential to ensure debt stabilization over medium term. The only option to stabilize debt and recover buffers is to stick to the 3 percent fiscal deficit target while addressing the SFA. The simulations indicate that the only scenario consistent with both debt stability and the recovery of some fiscal buffers to cope with future shocks is the baseline scenario, with a deficit target of 3 percent of gross domestic product and elimination of the SFA.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents West African Economic and Monetary Union’s (WAEMU) report on Common Policies for Member Countries. The WAEMU’s post-coronavirus disease 2019 recovery has withstood the new global and regional shocks, partly due to supportive macroeconomic policies and favorable initial macroeconomic conditions. Growth prospects remain favorable and the financial system appears resilient. However, the WAEMU faces important risks and challenges associated with rising inflation, more limited access to international capital markets, eroding external reserve buffers, and regional security issues, in the presence of elevated global risks. It is urgent to design a credible fiscal strategy anchoring debt sustainability, based on clear and adequate deficit and debt regional ceilings. Further monetary tightening seems warranted unless large risks that second-round effects may derail inflation dissipate. Progress in regional reforms and development projects should be accelerated. Structural reforms to foster productivity growth and private investment are crucial to counteract possible scarring effects of the Covid-shock and facilitate intra-regional transactions, particularly in the areas of energy, digital and physical infrastructure, and food resilience. More coordination and pooled resources to implement regional development projects are essential.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The WAEMU’s post-Covid-19 recovery has so far withstood the new global and regional shocks, partly owing to supportive fiscal and monetary policies as well as relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals over the previous decade. Growth prospects remain favorable, reserves—albeit declining—remain adequate, and the financial system appears to be resilient. However, the region faces important challenges associated with rising inflation, limited access to international capital markets, eroding external buffers, and regional security issues, in the presence of elevated global risks.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), and with the support of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) Western Hemisphere Department (WHD), a monetary and financial statistics (MFS) technical assistance (TA) mission from the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) visited Montevideo during February 3-14, 2020. The main objectives of the mission were to: (i) review available source data for other financial corporations (OFC); in particular, insurance corporations (IC), pension funds (PF), and credit administration companies (CAC); and (ii) compile standardized monetary statistics for OFC (report form SRF 4SR) in line with the 2016 Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG). The officials met during the mission are listed in Appendix I.