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Cover IMF Working Papers
Managing the Impact of Resource Booms on the Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Role of Financial Sector Development
Mr. Johannes Herderschee and Ms. Luisa Zanforlin
Whereas most of the literature related to the so-called “resource curse” tends to emphasize on institutional factors and public policies, in this research we focus on the role of the financial sector, which has been surprisingly overlooked. We find that countries that have financial systems with more depth, as well as those that actively manage their central banks’ balance sheets experience less exchange-rate appreciation than countries that do not. We analyze the relationship between these two findings and suggest that they appear to follow separate mechanisms.
Keywords:
Resource-Rich Countries; Financial Development; Monetary Policy; REER appreciation; credit vis-à-vis credit; monetary policy rate; balance sheet management policy; appreciation of the REER; nonrenewable resource wealth; gas resource; Financial sector development; Real effective exchange rates; Natural resources; Sterilization; Financial sector; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Solomon Islands: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This paper analyzes Solomon Islands’ ongoing reforms concerning of the mineral taxation regime and the fiscal impact of mineral resources. The analysis shows that mineral revenue could be substantial, provided that mineral prices remain strong in the medium term. Enforcing the tax agreement with, a Gold Ridge company, and implementing the new resource taxation regime are critical to ensure that the forthcoming mineral wealth spills over to the rest of the economy. Solomon Islands should adopt new fiscal rules and fiscal responsibility provisions to manage large but volatile resource revenue.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; revenue; tax; transmission mechanism; headline inflation; consumer goods price; basket regime; Gold Ridge tax agreement; monetary policy transmission mechanisms; mining revenue; inflation pressure; mineral revenue; Mining sector; Inflation; Non-renewable resources; Exchange rates; Consumer price indexes; Global; Pacific Islands; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Linkage between the Oil and Non-oil Sectors: A Panel VAR Approach
Nir Klein
Recent empirical studies have shown an inverse relation between natural resource intensity and long-term growth, implying that the natural resources generally impede economic growth through various channels (the “natural resource curse”). This paper departs from these studies by exploring the intersectoral linkages between oil and non-oil sectors in a cross-country perspective. The paper shows that the applicability of “natural resource curse” across oilbased economies should be treated with caution as the externalities of the oil sector highly depend on the countries’ degree of oil-intensity. In particular, the results show that, in low oil-intensity economies, the incentives to strengthen both fiscal and private sector institutions lead to positive inter-sectoral externalities. In contrast, weaker incentives in high oil-intensity economies adversely affect fiscal and private sector institutions and consequently lead to negative inter-sectoral externalities.
Keywords:
WP; country; exporter; estimation; oil-intensity country; Panel VAR; natural resources; inter-sectoral linkages; real effective exchange rate; oil sector; natural resource curse; curse channel; oil exporter; estimation result; Oil sector; Oil; Real effective exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the optimal policy response on the part of the Kazakhstan authorities to the prospective oil inflows. It surveys the literature on the so-called natural resource curse and offers an analysis of Kazakhstan’s petroleum potential. The paper analyzes the impact of the oil boom on the non-oil sector, based on a general equilibrium model. It provides an analysis of fiscal rules and fiscal sustainability and assesses the possible role of fiscal policies in addressing the “natural resource curse.”
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; economy; government; development institution; consumption; natural resource curse; government intervention; Kazakhstani government; Kazakhstani economy; Commodity booms; Natural resources; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Real exchange rates; Middle East; Central Asia; Western Europe; Africa; Southeast Asia; East Asia; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
How to Deal with Azerbaijan’s Oil Boom? Policy Strategies in a Resource-Rich Transition Economy
Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg and Mr. Tapio Saavalainen
The petroleum-rich former Soviet republics around the Caspian Sea face the dual challenge of managing the transition to a market economy and a booming resource sector. This paper examines this challenge with particular reference to Azerbaijan. The standard “Dutch disease” model is modified to capture the special conditions of transition economies, with specific attention to the pattern of real exchange rate movement. “Transition factors” are found to add to the speed of real appreciation. Non-oil sectors may suffer, but less through the real appreciation than through transition-specific structural problems. The paper describes a medium-term policy strategy for Azerbaijan, relating its prospects to the experience in the 1970s of Ecuador, Indonesia, and Nigeria. The adverse effects of the Dutch disease may be avoided if Azerbaijan pursues policies to promote savings and open trade, and strengthens the supply side through structural policies.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; goods price; current account; money supply; oil boom; Azerbaijan; Dutch disease; transition; oil; goods sector; unbalanced growth; market economy; nominal exchange rate; chapter II; Dutch Disease model; oil sector; Azerbaijan economy; appreciation pressure; traded goods sector; Natural resources; Real exchange rates; Commodity booms; Baltics; Central Asia