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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Malaysia entered the pandemic from a robust economic position but has nonetheless been significantly affected. A synchronous fiscal, monetary and financial policy response has helped cushion the economic impact. As a result, after a deep recession in 2020, and assuming the pandemic is brought under control in Malaysia and globally, growth would rebound to 6.5 percent in 2021 as supply side constraints are lifted and domestic and external demand recover. Large downside risks will remain.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
While Panama has been the most dynamic economy in Latin America over the last three decades (growing 6 percent on average), its strength is being tested by the COVID-19 global pandemic. Panama is a service-based economy that is highly integrated in the world economy and exposed to extreme shocks during the pandemic.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Germany managed the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic relatively well thanks to an early and vigorous public health response. Nonetheless, unprecedented disruptions to economic and social activity caused a deep recession in the first half of 2020. The gradual easing of containment measures since late-April has led to a partial revival of growth, but in late-October a “lockdown light” was announced to counter a new wave of infections, and restrictions were further tightened in mid-December. Significant risks remain about the pace and extent of the recovery as the uncertain course of the epidemic continues to impact economic activity.
International Monetary Fund
The temporary increase in access limits under IMF emergency financing instruments will expire on October 5, 2020, unless extended. Access limits under emergency instruments (the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI)) were increased in April 2020 for a period of six months, from 50 to 100 percent of quota annually and from 100 to 150 percent of quota cumulatively. The increased limits are subject to review and can be extended before their expiration. It is proposed to extend the period of higher access limits for emergency financing for a period of six months, through April 6, 2021. Against a background of continued pandemic-related disruption, staff expects there could be significant demand for emergency lending in the October 2020–April 2021 period, including from countries with pending requests and from countries that received emergency support at levels less than the maximum amounts available. A six-month extension would give more time for countries to benefit from higher access limits under emergency financing.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores non-oil growth impediments in Chad to better understand why the Chadian economy has not sufficiently rebounded from the crisis. It discusses how the economy is held back by crisis legacies such as high public debt and a fragile banking sector and how Chad continues to face long standing structural weaknesses which hamper potential growth. Three years of recession in Chad have left important legacies that continue to affect fiscal policy and performance in the non-oil private sector and the banking sector. Public domestic debt more than doubled with the crisis. As the Chadian economy was hit by the oil shock, while dramatically cutting spending, the government had to rely on large domestic financing to cushion the impact of the shock. Although the government started paying arrears, the remaining stock is very large and presents a drag on the non-oil economy. The paper ends with a discussion of how Chad’s economic potential will require reforms to address those weaknesses to foster economic diversification.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses Mongolia’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has taken a large toll on economic activity in Mongolia, giving rise to urgent budget and balance of payments needs. The authorities have already taken several measures to limit the economic contraction and help the most vulnerable. Recent revisions to the budget allow for higher health and social spending as well as tax relief to affected households and businesses. In addition, the Bank of Mongolia has eased monetary and financial policies to help prevent a disorderly contraction in bank lending to the private sector. Emergency financing under the IMF’s RFI will provide much needed support to respond to the urgent balance of payments and budgetary needs. Additional assistance from development partners will be required to support the authorities’ efforts and close the financing gap. The authorities’ commitment to high standards of transparency and governance in the management of financial assistance is welcome.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues on Gabon seeks to quantify the impact of governance reforms on growth. It uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to Gabon to simulate the potential benefits from governance and anti-corruption reforms to growth and public debt. Vulnerabilities in the fiscal institutional framework constrain effective revenue collection and reduce the efficiency of public spending, thus limiting fiscal space for priority pro-growth spending. The results of a DSGE model for Gabon suggest that macro-fiscal gains from governance reforms could be substantial. The potential additional growth can range from 0.8 to 1.5 percent per year over the next 10 years, and debt can decline by 1.0 to 2.0 percent of non-oil gross domestic product per year over the same period. It is urgent to improve governance and curb corruption to boost domestic revenue, enhance public finance management and the quality of spending, and improve the business environment to promote private investment and facilitate private sector activity.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores non-oil growth impediments in Chad to better understand why the Chadian economy has not sufficiently rebounded from the crisis. It discusses how the economy is held back by crisis legacies such as high public debt and a fragile banking sector and how Chad continues to face long standing structural weaknesses which hamper potential growth. Three years of recession in Chad have left important legacies that continue to affect fiscal policy and performance in the non-oil private sector and the banking sector. Public domestic debt more than doubled with the crisis. As the Chadian economy was hit by the oil shock, while dramatically cutting spending, the government had to rely on large domestic financing to cushion the impact of the shock. Although the government started paying arrears, the remaining stock is very large and presents a drag on the non-oil economy. The paper ends with a discussion of how Chad’s economic potential will require reforms to address those weaknesses to foster economic diversification.
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This chapter takes stock of the world’s development agenda, examining how to best seize this opportunity. Government officials and representatives from civil society organizations, donor groups, and the private sector are scheduled to meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to secure the financing needed to lift millions out of extreme poverty. Participants at the United Nations summit on climate change in Paris are expected to work toward a set of environmental targets aimed at ensuring a sustainable future. The chapter also presents an argument that the world needs strong deals in Addis Ababa on financing and in Paris on climate to deliver sustainable progress.