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Jean-Louis Combes, Rasmané Ouedraogo, and Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba
Foreign aid is a sizable source of government financing for several developing countries and its allocation matters for the conduct of fiscal policy. This paper revisits fiscal effects of shifts in aid dependency in 59 developing countries from 1960 to 2010. It identifies structural shifts in aid dependency: upward shifts (structural increases in aid inflows) and downward shifts (structural decreases in aid inflows). These shifts are treated as shocks in aid dependency and treatment effect methods are used to assess the fiscal effects of aid. It finds that shifts in aid dependency are frequent and have significant fiscal effects. In addition to traditional evidence of tax displacement and “aid illusion,” we show that upward shifts and downward shifts in aid dependency have asymmetric effects on the fiscal accounts. Large aid inflows undermine tax capacity and public investment while large reductions in aid inflows tend to keep recipients’ tax and expenditure ratios unchanged. Moreover, the tax displacement effects tend to be temporary while the impact on expenditure items are persistent. Finally, we find that the undesirable fiscal effects of aid are more pronounced in countries with low governance scores and low absorptive capacity, as well as those with IMF-supported programs.
International Monetary Fund
2015 is set to be a pivotal year for the international development agenda, with agreements to be reached on the objectives and policies for promoting development that is economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable through 2030. The first stage in completing the debate on these issues is the Third UN Conference on Financing for Development (FfD), to be held in Addis Ababa during July 13–16, 2015, which aims to build an international consensus on the actions needed to ensure that sufficient financing is available for developing countries in pursuing sustainable development.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The September 2008 issue examines key issues facing low-income countries, including how they should respond to high oil and food prices. Some African economies are now successfully attracting international investors and are seen as a new tier of "frontier" emerging markets. Separate articles look at problems of aid effectiveness, aid predictability, and aid fragmentation. Other articles include an account by Eswar S. Prasad and Raghuram G. Rajan of their new report on financial sector reforms in India; Martin Ravallion and Dominique van de Walle draw lessons on reducing poverty from Vietnam's agrarian reforms; Sanjeev Gupta and Shamsuddin Tareq make a strong case for sub-Saharan countries to mobilize their domestic revenue bases. In addition, Simon Willson profiles Beatrice Weder di Mauro, the first woman on Germany's Council of Economic Experts; and the outgoing IMF Chief Economic Simon Johnson talks about the new drivers of global growth-emerging markets.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Le numéro de septembre 2008 penche sur des questions importantes pour les pays à faible revenu, dont la réponse à apporter au niveau élevé des produits du pétrole et des denrées alimentaires. Certains pays d'Afrique parviennent aujourd'hui à attirer les investisseurs internationaux et sont considérés comme une nouvelle catégorie de pays « préémergents ». D'autres articles sont consacrés aux problèmes de l'efficacité de l'aide de développement, de sa prévisibilité et de sa fragmentation. Autres articles : un résumé par Eswar S. Prasad et Raghuram G. Rajan de leur nouveau rapport sur les réformes du secteur financier en Inde ; Martin Ravallion et Dominique van de Walle tirent les leçons des réformes agraires du Vietnam en ce qui concerne la réduction de la pauvreté ; Sanjeev Gupta et Shamsuddin Tareq exposent les raisons pour lesquelles les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne doivent renforcer leurs sources de revenus. En outre, Simon Willson dresse le portrait de Beatrice Weder di Mauro, première femme à siéger au conseil économique de l'Allemagne, et Simon Johnson, conseiller économique sortant du FMI, parle des nouveaux moteurs de la croissance économique : les marchés émergents.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The September 2008 issue examines key issues facing low-income countries, including how they should respond to high oil and food prices. Some African economies are now successfully attracting international investors and are seen as a new tier of "frontier" emerging markets. Separate articles look at problems of aid effectiveness, aid predictability, and aid fragmentation. Other articles include an account by Eswar S. Prasad and Raghuram G. Rajan of their new report on financial sector reforms in India; Martin Ravallion and Dominique van de Walle draw lessons on reducing poverty from Vietnam's agrarian reforms; Sanjeev Gupta and Shamsuddin Tareq make a strong case for sub-Saharan countries to mobilize their domestic revenue bases. In addition, Simon Willson profiles Beatrice Weder di Mauro, the first woman on Germany's Council of Economic Experts; and the outgoing IMF Chief Economic Simon Johnson talks about the new drivers of global growth-emerging markets.
International Monetary Fund
Guinea-Bissau remains fragile, after nearly a decade of conflict and political instability. Fiscal performance has improved markedly since the new government implemented its emergency fiscal plan. The focus of the government on stabilizing public finances and improving economic management and transparency reflects a sound view of urgent priorities. Efforts to enhance revenue collection, including improving tax administration, are necessary to boost revenues on a lasting basis and ensure that the state has the resources to meet its core expenditure needs and provide basic public services.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF research summaries on governance of banks (by Luc Laeven) and on whether there is a foreign aid paradox (by Thierry Tressel); country study on Mozambique (by Jean A.P. Clément and Shanaka J. Peiris); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during July 2007-January 2008; listing of contents of Vol. 54, Issue No. 4 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; listing of recent external publications by IMF staff; and a call for papers for the upcoming Conference on International Finance.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Madagascar reports on the several key themes associated with longer-term development issues in Madagascar. As one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar suffers from low levels of social indicators across all fronts including education, health, water and sanitation, and infrastructure. To make progress toward the Millennium Development Goals, the country will need to scale up substantially both public and private investment while taking actions to increase absorptive and institutional capacity and implementing supportive policies in each of the priority sectors.
Abhijit Sen Gupta
This paper contributes to the existing empirical literature on the principal determinants of tax revenue performance across developing countries by using a broad dataset and accounting for some econometric issues that were previously ignored. The results confirm that structural factors such as per capita GDP, agriculture share in GDP, trade openness and foreign aid significantly affect revenue performance of an economy. Other factors include corruption, political stability, share of direct and indirect taxes etc. The paper also makes use of a revenue performance index, and finds that while several Sub Saharan African countries are performing well above their potential, some Latin American economies fall short of their revenue potential.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses the Use of IMF Resources in Haiti and Request for Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (EPCA). The EPCA-supported program was on track until May 2005. All end-December and end-March targets were observed, inflation declined, the exchange rate stabilized, and net international reserves were increased. However, following expansionary fiscal and monetary policies during May–June, most end-June targets were missed. Also, while many structural measures were implemented as envisaged, progress on key structural measures, including the census of public employment and domestic arrears, was delayed.