Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Mr. James Daniel, Mr. Masahiro Nozaki, Cristian Alonso, Vybhavi Balasundharam, Mr. Matthieu Bellon, Chuling Chen, David Corvino, and Mr. Joey Kilpatrick
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing policymakers worldwide, and the stakes are particularly high for Asia and the Pacific. This paper analyzes how fiscal policy can address challenges from climate change in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to answer how policymakers can best promote mitigation, adaptation, and the transition to a low-carbon economy, emphasizing the economic and social implications of reforms, potential policy trade-offs, and country circumstances. The recommendations are grounded in quantitative analysis using country-specific estimates, and granular household, industry, and firm-level data.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper describes the current tax system in Bhutan and suggests options for tax policy reform. Though significant hydropower revenues are expected in the medium term as major projects come on-stream, reforms to the existing tax system in the interim will generate fiscal room and prevent recourse to domestic debt to finance development needs. Key reforms include reducing tax exemptions in the near term and introduction of value-added tax in the medium term. The paper also analyzes the adequacy of international reserves in Bhutan using a customized risk-weighted metric. The results indicate that Bhutan’s reserve levels are ample.
This technical assistance report on Mongolia was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed in June, 2012. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Mongolia or the Executive Board of the IMF.
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix presents an overview of the fiscal developments in Mongolia since the late 1990s. It assesses the “quality” of the ongoing fiscal adjustment. The paper examines the dramatic expansion of bank credit to the private sector over the last five years, asking what its sources are and what its consequences may be, particularly for the maintenance of macroeconomic and financial stability. The paper also describes recent developments in the garment sector in Mongolia.
Mongolia has performed commendably under the Poverty Reduction Growth Facility arrangements. Executive Directors commended the prudent macroeconomic policies, low inflation, and reduction in vulnerability. They stressed the need to strengthen the fiscal position, improve economic governance, pursue prudent monetary and external debt management policies, and maintain an open trade and investment regime. They agreed that Mongolia's Economic Growth Support and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EGSPRS) provides a sound basis for IMF’s concessional financial assistance, and approved further finance assistance.
This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster's goal is to do as well as possible in predicting the actual outcome is sometimes questionable. ln the context of private sector forecasts, this is because the incentives for forecasters may induce them to herd rather than to reveal their true forecasts. Public sector forecasts may also be distorted, although for different reasons. Forecasts associated with IMF programs, for example, are often the result of negotiations between the IMF staff and the country authorities and are perhaps more accurately viewed as goals, or targets, rather than pure forecasts. The standard theory of time series forecasting involves a variety of components including the choice of an information set, the choice of a cost function, and the evaluation of forecasts in terms of the average costs of the forecast errors. It is generally acknowledged that by including more relevant information in the information set, one should be able to produce better forecasts.
This report provides the details of the IMF's projections and estimates for Mongolia on selected economic indicators, 1995–98; gross domestic product; output of major agricultural products and basic industrial and mining products; petroleum balances; electricity sector; retail prices; summary operations of the general government; general government revenue, expenditure, expenditure by function and social expenditure; official grants; balance of payments, 1994–98; budgetary support for enterprises; services and income tax accounts, 1996–98; trade regime; monetary survey; interest rates; balance sheet of the bank of Mongolia; consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks, 1996–99, and so on.