Past studies on the relationship between electricity consumption and temperature have primarily focused on individual countries. Many regions are understudied as a result of data constraint. This paper studies the relationship on a global scale, overcoming the data constraint by using grid-level night light and temperature data. Mostly generated by electricity and recorded by satellites, night light has a strong linear relationship with electricity consumption and is correlated with both its extensive and intensive margins. Using night light as a proxy for electricity consumption at the grid level, we find: (1) there is a U-shaped relationship between electricity consumption and temperature; (2) the critical point of temperature for minimum electricity consumption is around 14.6°C for the world and it is higher in urban and more industrial areas; and (3) the impact of temperature on electricity consumption is persistent. Sub-Saharan African countries, while facing a large electricity deficit already, are particularly vulnerable to climate change: a 1°C increase in temperature is estimated to increase their electricity demand by 6.7% on average.
Ms. Marina Moretti, Mr. Marc C Dobler, and Mr. Alvaro Piris Chavarri
This paper updates the IMF’s work on general principles, strategies, and techniques
from an operational perspective in preparing for and managing systemic
banking crises in light of the experiences and challenges faced during
and since the global financial crisis. It summarizes IMF advice concerning
these areas from staff of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department
(MCM), drawing on Executive Board Papers, IMF staff publications, and
country documents (including program documents and technical assistance
reports). Unless stated otherwise, the guidance is generally applicable across
the IMF membership.
Ms. Deniz O Igan, Hala Moussawi, Alexander F. Tieman, Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, and Mr. Paolo Mauro
We track direct public interventions and public holdings in 1,114 financial institutions over the period 2007–17 in 37 countries based on publicly available information. We use aggregate official data to validate this new dataset and estimate the fiscal impact of interventions, including the value of asset holdings remaining in state hands at end-2017. Direct public support to financial institutions amounted to $1.6 trillion ($3.5 trillion including guarantees), with larger amounts allocated to lower capitalized and less profitable banks. As of end-2017, only a few countries had fully divested the initial support they provided during the crisis. Public holdings were divested faster in better capitalized, more profitable, and more liquid banks, and in countries where the economy recovered faster. In countries where the government stake remained high relative to the initial intervention, private investment and credit growth were slower, financial access, depth, efficiency, and competition were worse, and financial stability improved less.