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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Chad’s 2019 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Article IV discussions focused on policy priorities to deal with legacies from the crisis and the longstanding structural weaknesses. Reducing government domestic debt and domestic arrears would address key impediments to growth that persist from the crisis. Sustained efforts are needed to increase non-oil revenues, improve the efficiency and quality of public spending, and reduce the vulnerability of the fiscal position to oil price fluctuations. Performance under the ECF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory with continued improvement in the fiscal position and progress in implementing structural reforms in spite recent delays. Overall economic activity strengthened in 2018; however, further reform efforts are needed to support the recovery in the non-oil sector and improve social conditions. Chad’s program is supported by the implementation of policies and reforms by the regional institutions which are critical to its success.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Chad’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review. Chad’s performance under the Fund’s ECF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory, reflecting strong commitment by the authorities despite a challenging environment, including security concerns and a tense social situation. Good progress on the structural reform agenda has been made, despite some delays. Looking ahead, it is essential that the authorities continue to pursue prudent fiscal policy, particularly in the run up to the upcoming elections, create enough fiscal space for increased social and development spending, and pay down domestic debt and arrears. Chad’s program is supported by the implementation of supportive policies and reforms by the regional institutions in the areas of foreign exchange regulations and monetary policy framework and to support an increase in regional net foreign assets, which are critical to the program’s success.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Chad’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review. Chad’s performance under the Fund’s ECF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory, reflecting strong commitment by the authorities despite a challenging environment, including security concerns and a tense social situation. Good progress on the structural reform agenda has been made, despite some delays. Looking ahead, it is essential that the authorities continue to pursue prudent fiscal policy, particularly in the run up to the upcoming elections, create enough fiscal space for increased social and development spending, and pay down domestic debt and arrears. Chad’s program is supported by the implementation of supportive policies and reforms by the regional institutions in the areas of foreign exchange regulations and monetary policy framework and to support an increase in regional net foreign assets, which are critical to the program’s success.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Chad’s 2019 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Article IV discussions focused on policy priorities to deal with legacies from the crisis and the longstanding structural weaknesses. Reducing government domestic debt and domestic arrears would address key impediments to growth that persist from the crisis. Sustained efforts are needed to increase non-oil revenues, improve the efficiency and quality of public spending, and reduce the vulnerability of the fiscal position to oil price fluctuations. Performance under the ECF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory with continued improvement in the fiscal position and progress in implementing structural reforms in spite recent delays. Overall economic activity strengthened in 2018; however, further reform efforts are needed to support the recovery in the non-oil sector and improve social conditions. Chad’s program is supported by the implementation of policies and reforms by the regional institutions which are critical to its success.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
On April 13, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first review of Chad’s economic performance under the program supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Completion of this review enables the immediate disbursement of SDR 35.05 million (about US$51 million). This brings total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 70.1 million (about US$ 99.8 million). The Board also approved the authorities’ request to waive the non-observance of the continuous performance criterion on the non-accumulation of new external payments arrears, and to rephase the planned disbursements.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses the CEMAC Regional convergence framework that aims at ensuring that national policies are consistent with a smooth functioning of CEMAC’s economic and monetary union. Established in 1999, a few years after the 1994 devaluation, as part of the Convergence and Stability Pact, it aims at addressing the coordination challenges posed by CEMAC’s common monetary policies and decentralized fiscal policies. CEMAC Regional convergence framework aims at ensuring that national policies are consistent with a smooth functioning of CEMAC’s economic and monetary union. Established in 1999, a few years after the 1994 devaluation, as part of the Convergence and Stability Pact, it aims at addressing the coordination challenges posed by CEMAC’s common monetary policies and decentralized fiscal policies. Owing in part to the weaknesses, the fiscal convergence framework has not been sufficient to prevent a sharp deterioration in public accounts over the last few years.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Chad’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. The main elements of the program are the reestablishment of debt sustainability through external debt restructuring, achieving gradual fiscal adjustment by maintaining a tight spending envelope, better mobilizing non-oil revenue, and creating space for domestic arrears clearance. The aim is to stabilize the fiscal position and help achieve a durable economic recovery while supporting regional stabilization efforts. Strengthening public financial management and diversifying the economy are expected to support the efforts to strengthen the fiscal position and boost the non-oil sector. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a new ECF arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Chad’s Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), Augmentation of Access, Extension of the Current Arrangement, and Rephasing of Disbursements. The authorities in Chad have implemented substantial fiscal adjustment to balance the budget and contain the accumulation of arrears. Nonetheless, liquidity conditions remain very tight, and social tensions have risen recently owing to the large cuts in current spending. IMF staff supports the completion of the third and fourth reviews under the ECF arrangement, the waivers of nonobservance of PCs on the nonaccumulation of domestic arrears and nonaccumulation of external arrears.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic outcomes in Chad continue to underperform, owing to the major impact of two exogenous shocks: lower oil prices and higher regional insecurity. Oil revenues have collapsed to a fraction of their previous level and are expected to recover only partially and gradually. Economic activity slowed sharply in 2015, with GDP growth estimated to have decelerated to 1.8 percent from 6.9 percent in 2014. The short- and medium-term outlooks remain challenging. Including a contraction of 1.1 percent in 2016, GDP growth is projected to average about 2 percent a year during 2016–18, compared with almost 5 percent during 2013–15.