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Dimitre Milkov, Mr. Rafael A Portillo, Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, and Mr. John Wakeman-Linn
Le secteur financier de la Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC) a été durement touché par la crise financière mondiale et par la récession mondiale qui s'en est suivie. Cette note examine la réaction des autorités des pays de la CEMAC à la crise et à la récession, et s'intéresse particulièrement aux incidences des politiques actuelles sur la viabilité des finances publiques de chaque pays, ainsi qu'à la viabilité de la position extérieure de la région et de son taux de couverture des réserves. Elle présente ensuite des recommandations de politique générale aux autorités des pays de la CEMAC, alors où celles-ci ajustent leur réaction à la crise mondiale.
Dimitre Milkov, Mr. Rafael A Portillo, Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, and Mr. John Wakeman-Linn
The financial sector of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) has been seriously affected by the global financial crisis and resulting global recession. This note assesses the response of CEMAC governments to the global financial crisis and recession, with particular focus on the impact of current policies on each country’s fiscal sustainability as well as the region’s external sustainability and reserve coverage. The note then provides general policy advice to CEMAC governments as they refine their response to the global crisis.
International Monetary Fund
This paper argues that as part of their fiscal optimization strategies CEMAC countries should be given the opportunity to invest into longer-term assets that generate market-based returns. The BEAC has created a framework of longer-term savings funds but due to low remuneration and other factors usage has remained limited. The paper also argues that regional savings in the form of reserve accumulation must be sufficient to ensure the stability of the common currency. While the current level of common foreign reserves may now be appropriate, maintaining an adequate level calls for a link between country-specific savings decisions and the setting of a regional reserve target. Strengthening and diversifying reserve management will also be desirable, a process the BEAC has embarked upon.
Ms. Caroline M Kende-Robb
The objective of this paper is to present some early experiences of poverty and social impact analysis (PSIA) from the PRGF-supported programs in the African Department. The paper illustrates that many staff country reports have taken a first step toward PSIA by making more explicit the links between poverty and policies. Various examples highlight that even though relationships can be complex and analysis, as a result, may not be definitive, it is possible to assess some of the potential poverty effects even in countries with limited data, and therefore contribute to a more informed policy debate and design. The paper concludes that PSIA can help design policies that are more pro-poor, better define appropriate compensatory and complementary measures where appropriate, and support country ownership of reforms by promoting a public debate on trade-offs between policy choices. In light of this, the paper proposes that PRGF policy advice would benefit from more systematic PSIA and that staff country reports could report more on the potential policy trade-offs and poverty outcomes based on PSIA.