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Ms. Magda E. Kandil, Mrs. Genevieve M Lindow, Mr. Mario Mansilla, Mr. Joel Chiedu Okwuokei, Jochen M. Schmittmann, Qiaoe Chen, Xin Li, Marika Santoro, and Solomon Stavis
The paper examines the determinants of employment growth, drawing on data available across a sample of Caribbean countries. To that end, the paper analyzes estimates of the employment-output elasticity and the response of employment growth to major sources of labor market determinants, in the long and short run. The main determinants of employment include government investment and private sector credit, while the major determinants of external performance are real effective exchange rate, the price of major exporting commodities, the number of tourists, and growth in major trading partners. The paper concludes with a menu of policy recommendations and structural reforms towards sustaining high employment growth and higher living standards in the Caribbean.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on constructing a high-frequency economic growth indicator for Suriname. Most economic data for Suriname are available only with a substantial time lag and on a low-frequency basis, impeding such analyses. This paper presents a simple econometric model that closely approximates GDP in recent years. The model estimates are used to construct a monthly indicator of economic activity for Suriname. The indicator provides information about the pace of economic activity close to real time, typically with a one- to two-month lag.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Judith Gold, Mr. Ruben V Atoyan, and Miss Cornelia Staritz
After a period of exceptionally strong economic performance, Guyana's growth has stagnated since 1998. The paper tries to identify the factors that can explain this dramatic deterioration in economic performance. The paper first attempts to explain the decline of growth with a growth accounting exercise which shows that there was a significant swing in total factor productivity, and than uses a panel regression framework to analyze the growth impact of changes in various factors. Finally, through a series of cross-country exercises, the paper shows that the primary reasons for the divergence between the economic performance of Guyana and other Caribbean, HIPC, and PRGF-eligible countries in 1998-2004 are a substantial decline in share of net foreign and private domestic investment in GDP, a decline in the labor force, and a less favorable political and institutional environment.
Mr. Sukhdev Shah and Mr. Benedikt Braumann
Suriname recently went through a period of destabilizationthat that bordered on hyperinflation. The country’s experience provides a good illustration to study the genesis and dynamics of high inflation and includes some unusual phenomena, such as a monetary overhang, an eight-tiered exchange rate, and inflationary gold purchases by the central bank. High inflation also had a significant impact on the real economy. This paper compares the experience of Suriname with other countries discussed in the recent stabilization literature. It finds strong evidence of intertemporal demand effects, which occurred as the public reacted to the temporary bout of high inflation.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Suriname during 1994–96. In 1995, there was a major turnaround in Suriname’s economic and financial situation following the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies pursued in the first half of the 1990s and the political and economic disruptions of the 1980s. The marked improvement was owing to the restoration of financial discipline, a strengthening of international bauxite prices, and the unification and subsequent stabilization of the exchange rate. The inflation fell further to less than 1 percent in 1996.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper discusses the implications for credit policy of changes in the income velocity of money; it neglects other policy elements of financial programs unless they have a direct bearing on velocity changes. Control over credit expansion by domestic banks is used to influence expenditure decisions, since the availability of credit has a strong impact on expenditures on domestic and foreign goods and services and, possibly, on net capital flows and, therefore, on the balance of payments. The paper also describes some relationships between monetary and national income accounts in order to identify the changes in velocity that must be considered in determining credit policies. The relevance of incorporating lags into the demand for money function has been mentioned earlier. Lags in the formation of expectations within a country usually can be expected to change only slowly over time and, therefore, can be assumed constant in the estimation of the demand for money function.