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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper takes the case of Slovenia to analyze credit growth and economic recovery in Europe. The findings reveal that following the global financial crisis recovery in Slovenia significantly lags typical postrecession recoveries for both typical and financial-crisis-driven recessions. Credit dynamics have also been much more subdued. Controlling for Slovenia’s double-dip recession and the slowdown in global growth after the global financial crisis reveals that Slovenia’s recovery is not atypical. The cross-country study also finds that bank-specific factors are the key determinants of bank lending. Bank credit to the private sector also has a positive but modest impact on economic activity, mainly through the investment channel.
Mr. Frigyes F Heinz and Ms. Yan M Sun
By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.
Ms. Yan M Sun, Mr. Frigyes F Heinz, and Giang Ho
This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. An innovative feature of the paper is the use of combined trade and financial weights (based on BIS reporting banks’ external position data) to capture the very close trade and financial ties of the CESEE countries with the advanced Europe countries. The results show strong co-movements in output growth and interest rates but weaker linkages bewteen inflation and real credit growth within Europe. While the euro area is the dominant source of economic influences, there are also interesting subregional linkages, e.g. between the Nordic and the Baltic countries, and a small but notable impact of CESEE countries on the rest of the Europe.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

The Macedonian labor market exhibits a high unemployment rate, yet does not demonstrate obvious and large enough constraints on the demand or supply side. Considerable achievements can be made by maintaining macroeconomic stability, attracting FDI, and closing the educational gaps. The second paper assesses ways in which the Macedonian financial sector could better contribute to growth and real convergence, taking stock of where the sector stands and its recent developments. Streamlining bankruptcy procedures, improving collateral and systematic collection and publication of real estate sales data, and revisiting the interest rate cap may serve to moderately boost credit supply.

International Monetary Fund

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that inflation and the current account deficit in Slovenia are expected to moderate. The main downward risks to growth are lower-than-projected growth in Europe, and a credit crunch in the event that foreign financing of domestic banks dries up. In the medium term, the main challenge is that the economy needs to emerge from the global crisis on a sustainable growth path. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for their swift and decisive policy responses to slower growth and financial sector strains.

International Monetary Fund
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that inflation and the current account deficit in Slovenia are expected to moderate. The main downward risks to growth are lower-than-projected growth in Europe, and a credit crunch in the event that foreign financing of domestic banks dries up. In the medium term, the main challenge is that the economy needs to emerge from the global crisis on a sustainable growth path. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for their swift and decisive policy responses to slower growth and financial sector strains.