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Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti and Mr. Gee Hee Hong
Superficial examination of aggregate gross cross-border capital inflow data suggests that there was no substitution between portfolio inflows and bank loans in recent years. However, our novel analysis of disaggregate inflows (both by types of instrument and borrower) shows interesting heterogeneity. There has been substitution of bank loans for portfolio debt securities not only in the case of corporate and sovereign borrowers in advanced countries, but also sovereign borrowers in emerging countries. In the case of corporate borrowers in emerging markets, the relationship corresponds to complementarity across types of gross capital inflows, especially during periods of positive capital gross inflows after the global financial crisis. A large part of these patterns does not seem to be driven by a common phenomenon across countries associated with the global financial cycle, but rather by country-specific factors.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reports about current mainstream growth projections for the United States and the European Union over the medium term represent a marked slowdown from growth rates in the decades prior to the global financial crisis. Slower growth in Europe and the United States has mixed implications for growth prospects in developing economies. Most obviously, on the negative side, it means less demand for these countries’ exports, so models of development based on export-led growth may need to be rethought. In contrast, for Western Europe the narrative is about catch-up growth rather than the rate of cutting-edge technological progress. From the middle of the 20th century to the recent global crisis, this experience comprised three distinct phases. European medium-term growth prospects depend both on how fast productivity grows in the United States and whether catch-up growth can resume after a long hiatus. Economic historians see social capability as a key determinant of success or failure in catch-up growth.
International Monetary Fund
Report prepared by Jack Boorman, Former Director of the Policy Development and Review Department and Teresa Ter-Minassian, former Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF: This report summarizes the views of a representative sample of country authorities on IMF surveillance.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

03/66: “The GCC Monetary Union: Some Considerations for the Exchange Rate Regime,” George T. Abed, S. Nuri Erbaş, and Behrouz Guerami

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
On September 1, 2001, Anne Krueger took up the reins as the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director. She brought with her a wealth of experience from the public and private sectors, including long stints in academia—most recently as an economics professor at Stanford University—and, from 1982 to 1986, as the World Bank’s Vice President for Economics and Research. She is a Distinguished Fellow and past President ofthe American Economic Association.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Sequencing Financial Sector Reforms: Country Experiences and Issues, edited by R. Barry Johnston and V. Sundararajan ($27.50)

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Involving the Private Sector in Forestalling and Resolving Financial Crises, including Executive Board summing up and IMF staff paper