Nicoletta Batini, Mario di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, and Mr. Giovanni Melina
This paper estimates multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation to help inform stimulus measures for a post-COVID-19 sustainable recovery. Using a new international dataset, part of which was especially assembled for this analysis, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities—from zero-emission power plants to the protection of wildlife and ecosystems—can generate more than a dollar’s worth of economic activity. The estimated multipliers associated with green spending are about 2 to 7 times larger than those associated with non-eco-friendly expenditure, depending on sectors, technologies and horizons. These findings survive several robustness checks and suggest that ‘building back better’ could be a win-win for economies and the planet.
The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities of Nigeria in response to their request for technical assistance. Unlocking the potential of a rapidly growing population requires substantial improvements in human and physical capital. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy. Recognizing challenges, Nigeria has embraced the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Agenda. The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan 2017–2020 gives prominence to economic, social and environmental issues. This report assesses additional spending associated with making substantial progress along the SDGs. The report focuses on critical areas of human and physical capital. For each sector, the report documents progress to date, assesses Nigeria relative to peers, highlights challenges, and estimates the spending to make substantial SDG progress. Nigeria has shown gradual improvements in education. A gradual and strategic approach should be considered given the relatively large additional spending.
Following a benchmarking exercise, we estimate the spending required to reach satisfactory progress in the Sustainable Development Goals in the health, education, and infrastructure sectors in Brazil. We find that there is room for savings in education (up to 1.5 percentage point of GDP) and health (up to 2.5 percentage points of GDP) without compromising the quality of services but additional investments for over 3 percent of GDP per year are needed to close large infrastructure gaps in roads, water, and electricity by 2030. Brazil can do more with less, but increasing efficiency of public spending will require substantial reforms.
Raising living standards continues to be the main challenge facing Guatemala, as a matter of economic success and social cohesion. This paper discusses the spending, financing, and delivery capacity aspects of a viable development strategy for Guatemala couched within the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda. Overall, Guatemala faces additional spending of about 8½ percent of GDP in 2030 to attain health, education, and roads, water, and sanitation infrastructure SDGs. While substantial, these cost estimates are commensurate with a well-defined financing strategy encompassing continuing tax administration efforts, broad-based tax reform, scaled-up private sector participation, and greater spending efficiency. Improving delivery capacities is also essential to secure access of those public goods to all Guatemalans, irrespective of their place of residence, ethnic group, or ability to pay.
This paper provides a review of the economic performance of Malawi under the program supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Malawi's economy has been hit hard by weather-related shocks for a second consecutive year, further weakening growth and worsening food insecurity. Growth is estimated to have declined from 5.7 percent in 2014 to 3 percent in 2015 and is projected to drop further to 2.7 percent this year. Under the ECF program, the macroeconomic framework in the near term will be anchored on a policy mix incorporating a tight monetary stance and a level of domestic fiscal financing consistent with disinflation.
Fiscal policy affects sustainable development through its effects on growth, the environment, and resource development. What are the relationships between fiscal policy and sustainable development, and how does the IMF seek to promote sustainable development in its policy advice? What lessons have been learned so far, and how can governments, the international community, and international financial institutions more fully support sustainable development?
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Economic growth is essential for sustainable development and improving social outcomes.4 Growth usually—but not always—benefits the poor; in about 90 percent of the cases in which countries have experienced per capita GDP growth of at least 2 percent per year over a five-year period, the poor also experienced rising real incomes. While, in general, there is no pro-rich bias in growth,5 appropriate development of the poor’s income-earning potential can help ensure that they also share in the fruits of an expanding economy (see the section on “Fiscal Policy, Human Development, and the MDGs”). Not surprisingly, there is also a strong link between economic growth and improvements in non-income dimensions of poverty. For example, a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita typically results in a 3–5 percent decrease in infant and child mortality rates.6 Similarly, disparities between male and female literacy rates fall markedly as GDP increases.7 In this light, fiscal policy can play a pivotal role in achieving the MDGs by fostering robust economic growth.
In both developed and developing countries, fiscal policy has an important role to play in assuring sustainable use of natural resources and safeguarding the environment. This applies to both the tax and spending sides of the government’s budget. On the former,