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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
In the past two decades, Paraguay has seen strong growth and a sharp reduction in poverty. Strong GDP growth was the result of sound macro policies (with low inflation and low fiscal deficits and debt) and an agricultural commodity price boom which spilled over to the non-tradable sector. Growth was not just high but also volatile, as bad weather shocks led to poor harvests, which spill over to the broader economy. In early 2020, Paraguay was rebounding strongly from another weather shock, and full-year growth was forecast at over 4 percent. In 2019, bad weather had reduced the harvest, and GDP growth had come to a near standstill. A recovery started in the second half of 2019 and gathered strength in early 2020—in February economic activity was 7 percent higher than a year earlier. The Covid-19 epidemic halted the recovery. An early lockdown—which kept the death toll among the lowest in the region—led to a sharp contraction in economic activity, with April activity levels at 20 percent below those in February. Women, informal sector workers, and workers in the service sector were particularly hard hit; while children were severely affected by the closing of the schools until the end of 2020.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights about a relatively large young population is a key strength for Paraguay’s pension and health systems, a demographic shock will pose a key challenge. Fertility rates, measured as the number of children per woman, have already dropped substantially—from 6½ children per woman in the 1950s to 2.6 children per woman over 2010–2015. A rise in social security coverage will also impact the Instituto de Provisión Social (IPS), pension program over the longer term. Contributors have risen from 13 percent of the labor force in 2010 to around 21 percent in recent years. The authorities are also proposing new legislation to reform pension’s oversight and investments. While Paraguay’s financial system remains bank-based, the IPS and other pension funds are key institutional investors. The projections are based on a mix of data and assumptions from local and international sources. Demographic projections are those of the United Nations Population vision while data on labor force come from the International Labor Organization.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses assessment results on the observance of standards and codes on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) recommendations for antimoney laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) for Paraguay. The assessment reveals that the substantial U.S. dollar contraband trade that occurs on the borders shared with Argentina and Brazil facilitates money laundering in Paraguay. Achievements in the implementation of Paraguay’s AML framework remain modest since the criminalization of the money laundering offence in 1996. The level of implementation and compliance with respect to the FATF recommendations is low in the financial sector.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the detailed assessment report on antimoney laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) for Paraguay. The assessment reveals that there are significant gaps in Paraguay’s AML/CFT framework, and the level of awareness of money laundering/financing of terror risks is low in both the public and private sectors. The country falls well short of complying with most of the Financial Action Task Force recommendations. There are also no provisions that would allow the authorities to freeze suspected terrorist assets in accordance with the relevant UN Security Council Resolutions.
Mr. Jeffrey R. Franks, Miss Randa Sab, Ms. Valerie A Mercer-Blackman, and Roberto Benelli

Abstract

Following some historical background, this paper describes how corruption is manifested in Paraguay. The paper distinguishes between factors that explain the growth performance of Paraguay since 1960 (where corruption does not directly enter as a significant factor) and factors that explain the relative level of income of Paraguay in the past 40 or 50 years compared with other countries. It then illustrates how Paraguay's weak institutions may have led to long-term growth below its potential. Finally, the authors briefly consider how Paraguay could improve its institutions. To the extent that prudent policies and the willingness to consider the adoption of international best practices will exert pressure for change in Paraguay, a gradual improvement of institutional quality will ensue, which is necessary for sustained long-run growth.