OVERALL ASSESSMENT This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module provides an update of the assessment conducted in February 2006, which was based on the July 2003 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). This ROSC Data Module is the first complete report based on the May 2012 vintage of the DQAF that covers six datasets, namely, national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics, monetary statistics, and balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) statistics. The agencies that compile and disseminate these statistics are the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP) for all datasets but GFS, which are compiled and disseminated by the Ministry of Finance (MOF). Following the 2006 ROSC Data Module mission, Paraguay made significant improvements in the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics, including (i) adequate methodological treatment of the two large binational hydroelectrical enterprises to properly reflect their contribution to Paraguay’s GDP, BOP, and other international accounts; (ii) compilation and dissemination of quarterly national accounts and integrated economic accounts for the total economy up to net lending; (iii) new CPI series (December 2007=100) and PPI series (June 2011=100), with several methodological improvements (introduction of an adequate treatment of seasonal products and use of improved estimation techniques for missing prices), among others. Paraguay participates in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since September 2001, and the metadata for its macroeconomic statistics are posted on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). Paraguay meets GDDS recommendations for the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of data, with the following two exceptions: (i) in the financial sector, the depository corporations (DC) survey is compiled on a monthly basis with a one-month lag but is not disseminated; and (ii) in the external sector, the debt service payment schedules for both public and private external debt are not disseminated. Appendix I provides an overview of Paraguay's dissemination practices compared to the GDDS. At the request of the authorities, Paraguay’s current data dissemination practices were also reviewed against the requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). A detailed description of Paraguay current practices against the SDDS is presented in Appendix IV of the accompanying detailed assessment document (Volume III).
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2013 Article IV consultation highlights the main challenge ahead for Paraguay, which is to improve social and economic development while strengthening the macroeconomic policy framework to cement strong fundamentals. Paraguay’s outlook for 2014–18 is favorable, with broadly balanced risks, despite less buoyant external conditions. The economy is expected to continue to be one of the most dynamic in the region, with growth returning to potential of about 4.5 percent a year by 2016, inflation in line with the central bank’s target rate, and small fiscal and current account deficits. Consistent with this outlook, the policy stance should be tightened in the near term, with policies guided by fiscal responsibility and incipient inflation-targeting frameworks over the medium term.
En los últimos años, el FMI ha publicado cada vez más informes y trabajos que abarcan los fenómenos y tendencias en materia económica y financiera en los países miembros. Un equipo de integrantes del personal técnico del FMI elabora cada informe tras celebrar consultas con los funcionarios de los gobiernos; el país miembro puede optar por publicar el informe.
This Article IV Consultation reports that the overall balance of the central government of Paraguay is expected to be in equilibrium, while the central bank intends to withdraw excess liquidity as necessary to limit inflation to no more than 5 percent. Executive Directors commended the Paraguayan authorities for preserving macroeconomic stability in 2009 in the face of a severe drought and the global financial crisis. They emphasized the importance of fiscal reforms, aimed at increasing the tax ratio, strengthening fiscal management, and reducing fiscal risks.
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Paraguayan economy performed very well over the past five years, with real GDP growth averaging about 5 percent a year—the best in a generation. The fiscal position strengthened considerably, thereby reducing public debt sharply to relatively low levels. The economy grew by nearly 6 percent in 2008, but growth decelerated in the last quarter of the year. Paraguay’s macroeconomic outlook has also been negatively affected by the deterioration in the global environment.
The country lacks an integrated statistical framework that would take account of the various analytical and accounting linkages across macroeconomic statistics, and the relationships between regulatory tools, intermediate objectives, and policy goals. There is significant room to improve the methodological soundness, accuracy, and reliability of the statistics, for instance, by expanding the data sources for most sectors, as well as by strengthening data validation and statistical techniques for most datasets. Paraguay should improve the access to official statistics and metadata.