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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) discusses that the economy is projected to start recovering next year, but the pace is expected to be gradual and both near- and medium-term risks have increased significantly, including from trade and technology tensions, ongoing social unrest, and structural challenges of insufficient housing supply and high income inequality. Hong Kong SAR is well placed to address both cyclical and structural challenges with its significant buffers thanks to its long history of prudent macroeconomic policies. Given that the fiscal framework permits deficits during economic downturns, government spending should be increased significantly in the areas of social safety nets, education/retraining, and infrastructure to cope with the cyclical downturn and address structural challenges of insufficient housing and high-income inequality. This should be complemented with measures to ensure fiscal sustainability and greater equity.
International Monetary Fund
The Belarus authorities are moving in the direction of a flexible exchange rate system supported by an inflation-targeting (IT) regime, which would have significant benefits for the economy. A full-fledged IT framework (FFIT) requires a number of essential building blocks, which could be viewed as components of sound macroeconomic management. There are three additional features that could interfere with the IT regime. Some of the building blocks are essentially prerequisites for a successful launch of the IT regime; others could be developed (or fine-tuned) during early stages of IT implementation.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to reflect incoming news. Nor do they fully take into account interdependence among economies. This paper also focuses on robust growth determinants highlighting that a fundamental problem confronting researchers is the lack of an explicit theory identifying the determinants of growth.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Le numéro de septembre 2007 de F&D s'intéresse à la croissance des villes et à la tendance à l'urbanisation. Au cours de l'année à venir, pour la première fois dans l'histoire, plus de 50 % de la population mondiale vivra dans des zones urbaines plutôt qu'en zone rurale. Quelles sont les implications économiques de cette révolution urbaine ? Les économistes s'accordent généralement pour dire qu'une urbanisation bien gérée présente un fort potentiel d'augmentation de la croissance et d'amélioration de la qualité de vie. Mais comme l'indique l'article de couverture, l'inverse est également vrai : mal gérée, l'urbanisation peut non seulement entraver le développement, mais également favoriser l'émergence de bidonvilles. Les autres articles de cette série s'intéressent à la pauvreté urbaine dans le monde en développement, ainsi qu'à la prolifération des mégalopoles et des conséquences de celle-ci en matière de gouvernance, de financement et de prestations de services. D'autres articles abordent le difficile rééquilibrage de la croissance en Chine. La rubrique « Paroles d'économistes » tend le micro à Robert Barro, économiste d'Harvard ; « Gros plan » présente les difficultés auxquelles le Mexique est confronté ; et « L'ABC de l'économie » s'intéresse au taux de change réel.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Este número está dedicado al crecimiento de las ciudades y a la tendencia hacia la urbanización. Durante el próximo año, por primera vez en la historia, más del 50% de la población mundial vivirá en zonas urbanas. ¿Cuáles son las consecuencias económicas? La generalidad de los expertos concuerda en que, si se la maneja bien, la urbanización encierra grandes promesas para el crecimiento y la calidad de vida. Pero como argumenta el artículo central, si se la maneja mal podría no solo impedir el desarrollo sino también estimular la formación de barrios de emergencia. Otros artículos abordan el tema de la pobreza como fenómeno urbano en el mundo en desarrollo y el nacimiento de las megaciudades, con sus implicaciones para la gobernabilidad, el financiamiento y el suministro de servicios. Una serie de artículos están dedicados a la dificultad de reequilibrar el crecimiento en China. Gente del mundo de la Economía presenta un perfil de Robert Barro, de la Universidad de Harvard; Panorama nacional se ocupa de México, y Vuelta a lo esencial analiza los tipos de cambio reales.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The September 2007 issue of F&D looks at the growth of cities and the trend toward urbanization. Within the next year, for the first time in history, more than 50 percent of the world's population will be living in urban rather than rural areas. What are the economic implications of this urban revolution? Economists generally agree that urbanization, if handled well, holds great promise for higher growth and a better quality of life. But as the lead article tells us, the flip side is also true: if handled poorly, urbanization could not only impede development but also give rise to slums. Other articles in this series look at poverty as an urban phenomenon in the developing world and the development of megacities and what this means for governance, funding, and the provision of services. Another group of articles discusses the challenge of rebalancing growth in China. 'People in Economics' profiles Harvard economist Robert Barro; 'Country Focus' looks at the challenges facing Mexico, and 'Back to Basics' takes a look at real exchange rates.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the underlying factors that explain the behavior of the Kiwi dollar. The findings suggest that the factors influencing the New Zealand dollar have been changing. The paper discusses that as New Zealand has become more integrated in global capital markets over time, the Kiwi dollar has become less of a commodity currency and more of a global currency that is influenced by interest rate spreads and global risk factors. The paper also looks at the strong preference for housing over financial assets exhibited by New Zealand households.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines from an empirical standpoint the impact of fiscal aggregates on the evolution of output and the real effective exchange rate in the United Kingdom from the late 1970s to the present. It finds that the size of the dynamic fiscal multipliers is small, and often statistically nonsignificant. The paper also finds that the direction of the impact of taxes and government consumption, but not of social transfers, is, if anything, the reverse of that predicted by standard Keynesian models.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This three-volume study of the Soviet economy presents the detailed information, analysis, and recommendations for the summary report presented to the Group of Seven industrial countries in December 1990. The study was prepared by staff members of the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD, and the EBRD.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper describes problems and prospects associated with urbanization. The paper sees the rapid urbanization in the less developed world not as a crisis that can be “dealt with” by urgent measures but as a major historical phenomenon that calls for analytical study as well as current action in the hope that it can be influenced to play a positive role in economic development. The paper also analyzes the exchange rates at the beginning of the 1970s.