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  • Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements x
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Rasmané Ouedraogo, Rene Tapsoba, Moussé Sow, and Ali Compaoré
Does the reliance on diversified tax structure enhance resilience to fiscal risks? This paper gives an answer to this question by proposing a new cross-country tax revenue diversification index (RDI). The RDI builds on the Theil index, and unlike the few existing tax diversification indices, which are constructed only at the state level for the US, is computed at the national level, covering a broad panel of 127 countries over the period 2000-15. We find suggestive evidence that tax revenue diversification reduces tax revenue volatility, thus bringing to the data long-held views about the prominence of tax revenue diversification for fiscal resilience strengthening. While exploring the drivers of the RDI, we find that tax revenue diversification is not just a reflection of economic diversification, but also an outcome of macroeconomic, political and institutional factors. Interestingly, a non-monotone relationship is also at play between the RDI and economic development, with countries’ portfolio of tax sources getting more diversified as their economy develops, until a tipping point, where richer countries start finding it harder to diversify further their tax revenue sources.
Mr. Roberto Piazza
Empirical tests of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve have provided results often inconsistent with microeconomic evidence. To overcome the pitfalls of standard estimations on aggregate data, a Full Information Partial Equilibrium approach is developed to exploit sectoral level data. A model featuring sectoral NKPCs subject to a rich set of shocks is constructed. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the structural parameters are provided to allow sectoral idiosyncratic components to be linearly extracted. Estimation biases are corrected using the model's restrictions on the partial equilibrium propagation of idiosyncratic shocks. An application to the US, Japan and the UK rejects the purely forward looking, labor cost-based NKPC.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report presents the findings of an evaluation of the effectiveness of IMF interactions with its member countries during the period 2001-08, with special emphasis on 2007-08. It analyzes IMF interactions with its entire membership, broken down into three main country groups: advanced economies, emerging economies, and Poverty Reduction Growth Facility (PRGF)-eligible countries. The report comes at a critical juncture for the international monetary system, when the IMF has adopted a more flexible approach to lending and been given new responsibilities, as well as a major infusion of resources to help members deal with the global financial crisis. It highlights lessons learned from the evaluation that are most relevant to the tasks that lie ahead for the IMF.