This paper investigates the effect of timeliness in accessing the intermediate inputs on the
trade pattern. In particular, any country that has a higher ability to transport goods on time
has a comparative advantage in industries that place a higher value on the timely delivery of
their inputs, and this comparative advantage pattern is stronger for processed goods than for
primary goods. To do this, a measure for how intensively any industry demands for the
timely delivery of its intermediate inputs is constructed combining Hummels and Schaur
(2013)’s calculations of the time sensitivity of products with the input-output tables.
This Selected Issues paper examines the effect of political instability on economic growth in Nepal. It uses publicly available data on political economy variables for 167 countries worldwide from 1970–2004 to estimate the impact of political instability on growth. The findings reveal that Nepal has witnessed higher political instability compared with other countries in the region. The paper also presents the salient features of political instability and growth for Nepal and other South Asian countries, and the econometric estimates of growth regressions to measure the effect of political instability on economic growth.
This paper uses the Sjaastad model to estimate the optimal currency area for the Nepalese rupee and concludes that, currently, Nepal may be reasonably well off with its peg to the Indian rupee. As its economy opens and its trade base and trading partners expand, it may want to reevaluate whether moving toward an exchange rate basket including the U.S. dollar may be a better policy choice. The regression results indicate that, currently, the prices of imported goods in Nepal are solely influenced by India, suggesting that with the peg to the Indian rupee, Nepal can isolate the import side of its economy completely from external shocks. On the export side, the regression results indicate that Nepalese export prices seem, to a large extent, to be influenced by U.S. prices. However, the export price index had to be constructed, and the construction methodology is likely to entail an overestimation of the impact of the U.S. dollar.
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that Nepal’s real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 0.8 percent in 2001/02 from 5 percent in the previous year (fiscal year ending mid-July). Agricultural growth slowed to less than 2 percent from more than 4 percent, reflecting irregular rainfall. The output of nonagricultural sectors was largely stagnant, with manufacturing and tourism sectors particularly hit hard by the domestic security situation as well as the global slowdown. Inflation was subdued at about 3 percent, reflecting weak domestic demand and stable Indian prices for most of the year.
Since the transition to democracy, the government of Nepal has pursued policies intended to promote a modern market-oriented economy. Inflation continues to be strongly influenced by supply shocks and price developments in India. There have been improvements in the external position with continued reserve accumulation, and the real effective exchange rate has remained stable. Budget performance reflects the prevailing weaknesses in overall fiscal policy implementation. Some progress has been made in the areas of price reform, privatization, and financial sector reform.
This paper reviews economic developments in Nepal during 1996–98. During 1997–98, the authorities maintained broad macroeconomic stability and there was an improvement in the external position. However, real GDP growth slowed to below 2 percent in 1997/98 (fiscal year ending July 15) and, after remaining in single digits over the last several years, the 12-month inflation rate accelerated, as food prices jumped owing to temporary agricultural supply factors. Aided by the strong exports in the region and continued generous donor financing, gross official reserves increased in 1997/98 to more than US$700 million.
This Selected Issues paper highlights that progress on structural reforms in Nepal stalled during 1994/95 while economic performance deteriorated. Real GDP slowed as agriculture output was depressed by a less favorable monsoon, and exports declined as both the carpet and garment sectors faltered. Although the government’s domestic borrowing remained low, rapid growth in private credit financed a surge in imports that in combination with weakening export demand led to a sharp reduction of the external surplus. In 1995/96, economic activity rebounded as favorable weather conditions boosted agricultural output, while inflation performance continued to be satisfactory.
This Background Paper on Nepal highlights that during 1993/94, overall economic performance was generally favorable. Real GDP grew by nearly 7 percent, largely owing to the good monsoon that helped boost agricultural output significantly above the low levels recorded in the previous year. Inflation remained stable at about 9 percent, closely following price developments in India. Reflecting the substantial improvement in government revenue collections, net domestic financing of the budget deficit was contained at 1 percent of GDP.
This paper explains the features of the Communaute Financiere Africaine (CFA) Franc system. All CFA countries belong to one of three monetary systems. Although their statutes and functions differ somewhat, the three central banks have various common features. All three central banks are authorized to extend short-term and medium-term credit to the private sector. Many the commercial banks operating in the CFA countries are French banks with head offices in Paris. The credit operations of the commercial banks in the CFA countries are largely dependent upon the rediscount facilities offered by the central banks. The Bank is the sole authority for issuing CFA currency in the countries of French Equatorial Africa and in Cameroon. The exchange regulations applied in the CFA countries are patterned on those of France, with adaptations decided upon by local authorities according to local conditions and requirements. While exchange transactions with the other franc area countries generally are free, those with the non-franc area are subject to licensing.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.