International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the earthquakes in April and May and protests and trade disruptions following the promulgation of a new constitution in September have exacerbated the macroeconomic policy challenges facing the Nepalese economy. Real GDP growth is estimated to have decelerated to 3.4 percent in 2014/15 (mid-July 2014 to mid-July 2015) from 5.5 percent in 2013/14. Growth is expected to gradually rebound to about 5.5 percent by 2016/17, as economic activity recovers from the earthquake and reconstruction gains momentum. Inflation is projected to rise to about 8.5 percent over the next 12 months. The medium-term outlook depends importantly on the authorities’ reform efforts.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses Nepal’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). Before the April 2015 earthquake, Nepal’s macroeconomic performance was broadly favorable but the government’s weak budget implementation capacity held back growth and propped up the external position. The authorities’ main challenge has been to boost their capacity to plan, prioritize, and implement capital spending. The authorities are requesting financial assistance under the IMF’s RCF to address the urgent balance of payments and fiscal needs associated with the rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a disbursement under the RCF in the amount of SDR 35.65 million.
Assessment Letters or Statements may be prepared for member countries with Fund-supported programs; receiving Fund emergency assistance; with staff-monitored programs; or surveillance-only cases. They are typically produced for use by the country with multilateral or bilateral donors or creditors, in particular the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions.
Limited progress has been made in addressing Nepal’s structural weaknesses in tax administration and public financial management. Macroeconomic performance under the recent Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF)-supported program has been stable. The outlook for 2007–08 remains stable. Although the macroeconomic performance has been stable, progress on structural reforms has been held back by the fragile political circumstances. Public enterprises and the Nepal Oil Corporation, in particular, pursue quasi-fiscal activities involving significant subsidies. Nepal’s growth prospects depend most importantly on a peaceful political transition.
This report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Fiscal Transparency of Nepal discusses fiscal transparency practices. Broad objectives of fiscal policy have been included in the budget speech, but the sustainability of fiscal policy over the longer term is not examined. Public reporting in relation to performance of the programs during budget implementation is weak. The government has undertaken a review of overall economic development and revised the estimates of revenue and expenditure. Internal control procedures are not fully effective, and the accounting system needs to be substantially strengthened.
This note documents slow economic growth and significant delays in reform implementation owing to continued political instability and conflict. The annual progress report (APR) reviews progress in the power sector, but does not mention some critical challenges. It outlines some progress in public sector reforms and private sector development. The APR analyzes the impact on disadvantaged groups of several government of Nepal’s programs, but recognizes a decrease in spending for targeted programs. Progress has been made in finalizing and launching of a framework for monitoring and evaluation.
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that Nepal’s economic growth has been affected by the political turmoil and conflict, although inflation has remained moderate, and international reserves are adequate. Real GDP growth averaged 2 percent during 2000/01–2004/05, compared with the 1990s when growth in agricultural productivity and significant trade liberalization contributed to average real GDP growth of 5 percent. Inflation has remained in the low single digits, although it rose to 7¾ percent in mid-October 2005. The overall and domestically financed deficits remained limited in 2004/05.
This progress report presents key findings of the assessment of Nepal’s Tenth Plan—Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The report presents an overview of poverty in Nepal, the key elements of the Poverty Reduction Strategy and its linkages with the Millennium Development Goals. It discusses some of the key macroeconomic indicators and achievements. It also sums up government efforts to realign public expenditure management for supporting the PRSP goals. Achievements by sectors are documented. Performance in terms of institutional reforms and governance improvements is also described.
Nepal’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is set to decline from 68 percent of GDP at end-2002–03 over the medium term. The 2003–04 budget makes a start in implementing the medium-term fiscal strategy. Government spending will be redirected to social sectors, for poverty alleviation, and be better prioritized. Monetary policy would remain geared to supporting the exchange rate peg to the Indian rupee. Further steps are envisaged to strengthen the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), improve the banking environment, and restructure commercial and development banks.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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