Ruud A. de Mooij, Dinar Prihardini, Antje Pflugbeil, and Mr. Emil Stavrev
Luxembourg receives ample investment from multinational corporations, in part due to some attractive features in its international tax rules. Around 95 percent of these foreign investments pass through Luxembourg via companies performing holding and/or intra-group financing activities. While their contribution to Luxembourg’s economy is modest relative to their large overall balance sheets, they still generate around 3 percent of GDP in tax revenue, create almost 4500 direct jobs, and spend almost 3 percent of GDP on salaries and purchases of business services. Ongoing changes in the international corporate tax framework pose risks to these economic contributions, which this paper attempts to quantify. It also discusses options for reforms in Luxembourg’s tax system that could help offset adverse revenue and economic effects.
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on Georgia is on Residential Property Price Indices (RPPI) Mission. The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the IMF staff to the authorities of Georgia in response to their request for TA. The Second Phase of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative and guidance on Financial Soundness Indicators identify RPPI as a critical ingredient of financial stability policy analysis and macroprudential measures. National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat) is aiming at compiling a quarterly RPPI covering new flats and new detached houses for the capital city, Tbilisi. The mission implemented successfully the programs developed in R based on the IMF’s draft for the RPPI Practical Compilation Guide with the available data. The mission provided some guidance on the use of scanner data (SD) on the consumer price index (CPI) compilation. As per request of the Geostat Director, the mission also addressed the use of SD. The introduction of SD should be made on a stepwise approach to avoid huge impacts on the CPI and to make it more manageable, reliable, and safe.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on long-term impact of Brexit on the European Union (EU). This paper examines consequences of Brexit on the EU27 under various post-Brexit scenarios by using two different complementary approaches. Our results, which are broadly in line with recent findings in the literature, are twofold. First, Brexit would have negative effects on the EU27 as well, given the depth and the complexity of the EU-U.K. integration. Similar to various empirical studies, it has been observed that the estimated long-term output and employment losses (in percent) for the EU27 in the study are on average lower than the corresponding losses for the UK estimated in the literature. The level of output and employment are estimated to fall at most by up to 1.5 percent and 0.7 percent in the long run in the event of a ‘hard’ Brexit scenario, respectively. A “soft” Brexit outcome would lead to much lower losses.
This paper analyzes asymmetries in direct investment positions reported in the
Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS) following a top down approach.
First, it examines asymmetries at global level; second, it examines asymmetries between
CDIS reported and derived data for individual economies; and third, the paper analyzes
data at bilateral economy level.
Then, the paper explores seven main reasons for asymmetries, including those arising
even when economies follow international standards.
Finally, the paper includes a section on addressing bilateral asymmetries and concludes
with specific planned actions to reduce asymmetries, including initiatives led by
This paper explores the nature, significance and policy implications of spillovers in international corporate taxation—the effects of one country’s rules and practices on others. It complements current initiatives focused on tax avoidance by multinationals, notably the G20-OECD project on Base Erosion and Profit shifting (BEPS). The paper draws on the IMF’s experience on international tax issues with its wide membership, including through technical assistance (TA), and on its previous analytical work, to analyze spillovers and how they might be addressed. In doing so, it goes beyond current initiatives to look at a wide set of possible responses.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses the main findings of the Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems–International Organization of Securities Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures (FMIs) for the European Union. Euroclear Bank’s risk framework is generally sound. Euroclear Bank should become operationally ready to fully implement plans for recovery and the orderly winding-down of operations. In anticipation of the emerging international regulatory standards and frameworks on recovery and resolution of FMIs, Euroclear Bank has developed recovery plans and plans for the orderly winding down of its operations. Important risk measures have been taken to reduce credit risk, but further improvements are needed to comply with the international standards.
The global financial crisis has demonstrated weaknesses in resolution regimes for financial institutions around the globe, including in the European Union (EU). This paper considers the principles underlying resolution regimes for financial institutions, and draws out how a well-designed resolution regime can expand the toolset available for crisis management. Introducing, or in some cases expanding the scope, of these regimes is pressing to achieve more effective responses to ongoing financial sector weaknesses across the EU.
Mr. Paul R Masson, Marcel Cassard, and Mr. Timothy D. Lane
Stage 2 of monetary union in the Europe is to involve greater monetary cooperation; the paper examines the case for using the M3 money supply aggregated across “core ERM” countries- -those with low inflation and absence of realignments- -as a vehicle for that cooperation. First, the existence of a satisfactory long-run money demand relationship and short-run dynamic equation is verified. The resulting demand equations have at least as satisfactory econometric properties as those for France and Germany separately. Second, the predictive power of the core-ERM aggregate relative to French and German inflation is examined; it is shown that the aggregate helps to predict German inflation, over and above the predictive power of German M3. Thus, core-ERM M3 has value as an indicator for the anchor country in hitting its own domestic objective, quite separate from any concern about economic developments in neighboring countries.
The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is nontrivial because exchange rates within the ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behavior. The adjustment is essential since the expected rates of depreciation are usually of about the same magnitude as the interest rate differentials.