This paper compares the pattern of macroeconomic volatility in 17 Latin American countries during episodes of high and low growth since 1970, examining in particular the role of policy volatility. Macroeconomic outcomes are distinguished from macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and reversals, shocks, and institutional constraints. Based on previous work, a composite measure of structural reforms is constructed for the 1970-2004 period. We find that outcomes and policies are more volatile in low growth episodes, while shocks (except U.S. interest rates) are similar across episodes. Fiscal policy volatility is associated with lower growth, but fiscal policy procyclicality is not. Low levels of market-oriented reforms and structural reform reversals are also associated with lower growth.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
IMF economists and researchers from outside the institution gathered at the IMF’s Third Annual Research Conference on November 7-8. The conference had an overarching theme of capital flows and global governance but also dealt with an eclectic array of other issues that economists at the IMF and elsewhere are exploring.
This paper discusses that the need for financing accounts and for integrated income and financing accounts is to be found in the fact that the income accounts are deficient in two respects as a source of data on the variables in the Keynesian analysis. Investment as measured in the income accounts is not a wholly satisfactory measure of the investment variable of income analysis; and the income accounts omit entirely data on money and other financial assets, which are variables that play roles in the income analysis as necessary as those of saving and investment. The need for financing accounts is the need to measure the strategic variable, money, and to provide data on other financial assets in a form in which the causes and effects of changes in the economy’s preferences for money and other types of financial asset can be analyzed.