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  • Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes x
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Christian Saborowski, Sarah Sanya, Hans Weisfeld, and Juan Yepez
This paper examines the effectiveness of capital outflow restrictions in a sample of 37 emerging market economies during the period 1995-2010, using a panel vector autoregression approach with interaction terms. Specifically, it examines whether a tightening of outflow restrictions helps reduce net capital outflows. We find that such tightening is effective if it is supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals or good institutions, or if existing restrictions are already fairly comprehensive. When none of these three conditions is fulfilled, a tightening of restrictions fails to reduce net outflows as it provokes a sizeable decline in gross inflows, mainly driven by foreign investors.
Ms. Faezeh Raei and Mr. Selim Cakir
This paper assesses the impact of bonds issued according to Islamic principles (Sukuk), on the cost and risk structure of investment portfolios by using the Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework. The market for Sukuk has grown tremendously in recent years at about 45 percent a year. Sukuk provide sovereign governments and corporations with access to the huge and growing Islamic liquidity pool, in addition to the conventional investor base. The paper analyzes whether secondary market behavior of Eurobonds and Sukuk issued by the same issuer are significantly different to provide gains from diversification. The analysis, employing the delta-normal as well as Monte-Carlo simulation methods, implies such gains are present and in certain cases very significant.
Mr. Peter Wickham and Ms. Carmen Reinhart
Primary commodities still account for the bulk of exports in many developing countries. However, real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s and there is evidence of renewed weakness. The appropriate policy response to a terms of trade shock depends importantly on whether the shock is perceived to be temporary or permanent. Our results indicate that the recent weakness in commodity prices is mostly of a secular nature, stressing the need for commodity exporting countries to concentrate on export diversification and other structural policies. There is, however, scope for stabilization funds and the use of hedging strategies since the evidence also suggests commodity prices have become more volatile.