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Mr. Ayhan Kose, Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, Mr. Eswar S Prasad, and Shang-Jin Wei

Abstract

This study provides a candid, systematic, and critical review of recent evidence on this complex subject. Based on a review of the literature and some new empirical evidence, it finds that (1) in spite of an apparently strong theoretical presumption, it is difficult to detect a strong and robust causal relationship between financial integration and economic growth; (2) contrary to theoretical predictions, financial integration appears to be associated with increases in consumption volatility (both in absolute terms and relative to income volatility) in many developing countries; and (3) there appear to be threshold effects in both of these relationships, which may be related to absorptive capacity. Some recent evidence suggests that sound macroeconomic frameworks and, in particular, good governance are both quantitatively and qualitatively important in affecting developing countries’ experiences with financial globalization.

Mr. Ayhan Kose, Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, Mr. Eswar S Prasad, and Shang-Jin Wei

Abstract

This study provides a candid, systematic, and critical review of recent evidence on this complex subject. Based on a review of the literature and some new empirical evidence, it finds that (1) in spite of an apparently strong theoretical presumption, it is difficult to detect a strong and robust causal relationship between financial integration and economic growth; (2) contrary to theoretical predictions, financial integration appears to be associated with increases in consumption volatility (both in absolute terms and relative to income volatility) in many developing countries; and (3) there appear to be threshold effects in both of these relationships, which may be related to absorptive capacity. Some recent evidence suggests that sound macroeconomic frameworks and, in particular, good governance are both quantitatively and qualitatively important in affecting developing countries’ experiences with financial globalization.

Mr. Yougesh Khatri, Mr. Il Houng Lee, Mrs. O. Liu, Ms. Kanitta Meesook, and Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa

Abstract

This paper discusses how Malaysia can better protect itself from future shocks and avoid another crisis while it seeks to regain its position as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. To these ends, its strategy should include continued structural reforms to achieve healthy balance sheets of the banking and corporate sectors; further deregulation to promote competition and efficiency; and consistent macroeconomic policies to maintain financial stability and sustainable fiscal and external positions. Malaysia's economic structure and performance were relatively strong prior to the crisis. Malaysia’s initial low level of short-term external debt enabled it to maintain foreign reserves at a reasonably high level, and this contributed to relatively robust external and domestic confidence early on in the crisis. As a consequence of financial vigilance exercised through prudential regulation of capital movements, the exposure of the financial and corporate systems was contained. Stock market capitalization in Malaysia grew to an extremely high level prior to the crisis, reflecting both the fast expansion of the capital market and liberal capital account regime.

Mr. Andrew Berg, Mr. Paolo Mauro, Mr. Michael Mussa, Mr. Alexander K. Swoboda, Mr. Esteban Jadresic, and Mr. Paul R Masson

Abstract

This paper examines the consequences of heightened capital mobility and of the integration of developing economies in increasingly globalized markets for the exchange rate regimes of the industrial, developing, and transition economies. It builds upon previous studies by IMF staff on various aspects of the exchange rate arrangements of member countries, consistent with the IMF's role of surveillance over its members exchange rate policies.

Mr. Akira Ariyoshi, Mr. Andrei A Kirilenko, Ms. Inci Ötker, Mr. Bernard J Laurens, Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko, and Mr. Karl F Habermeier

Abstract

This paper examines country experiences with the use and liberalization of capital controls to develop a deeper understanding of the role of capital controls in coping with volatile capital flows, as well as the issues surrounding their liberalization. Detailed analyses of country cases aim to shed light on the motivations to limit capital flows; the role the controls may have played in coping with particular situations, including in financial crises and in limiting short-term inflows; the nature and design of the controls; and their effectivenes and potential costs. The paper also examines the link between prudential policies and capital controls and illstrates the ways in which better prudential practices and accelerated financial reforms could address the risks in cross-border capital transactions.

Mr. Leslie E Teo, Mr. Charles Enoch, Mr. Carl-Johan Lindgren, Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño, Ms. Anne Marie Gulde, and Mr. Marc G Quintyn

Abstract

This paper reviews the policy responses of Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand to the Asian crisis that erupted in 1997 and compares the actions of these three countries with those of Malaysia and the Philippines, which were buffeted by the crisis. Although work is still under way in all the affected countries, and thus any judgements are necessarily tentative, important lessons can be learned from the various experience of the last two years.

Mr. Kenneth Bercuson

Abstract

Since attaining independence in 1965, Singapore has experienced exceptionally rapid growth, low inflation, and a healthy balance of payments. This paper reviews Singapore’s economic development from a long-term perspective and examines some of the factors that have contributed to the rapid growth.

Ms. Carmen Reinhart and Mr. Mohsin S. Khan

Abstract

The developing economies of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) have been the recipients of a considerable volume of capital inflows in the 1990s. Given the increased integration of capital markets, it is not surprising that monetary control became more difficult for many developing APEC economies. Formulating an appropriate policy response has naturally been important. The three papers that make up this Occasional Paper each examine different aspects of these issues.

Mr. David Robinson, Mr. Ranjit S Teja, Yangho Byeon, and Ms. Wanda S Tseng

Abstract

Thailand's sucess with economic development in recent decades is due mainly to is commitment to an outward-looking, market-based economy, a development strategy centered on the private sector, and cautious financial policies. This papers dicusses recent economic strains and how the authorities are coping with them to sustain the momentum of development

Mr. Mohsin S. Khan and Mr. Morris Goldstein

Abstract

One of the more important yet puzzling aspects of the recent global stagflation has been the rather surprising resiliency of growth rates of real income in non-oil developing countries during the 1973-80 period in the face of the marked slowdown of corresponding growth rates in the industrial world. The primary purpose of this paper is to shed some light on this phenomenon by examining the relationship between the rate of economic growth in the non-oil developing countries and that in the industrial countries over the past decade or so.