I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF’s growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain forecasts well but are not predictors of actual growth. I show that, at long horizons, IMF forecasts are little better than a forecasting rule that uses no information other than the historical global sample average growth rate (i.e., a constant). Given the large noise component in forecasts, particularly at longer horizons, the paper calls into question the usefulness of judgment-based medium and long-run forecasts for policy analysis, including for debt sustainability assessments, and points to statistical methods to improve forecast accuracy by taking into account the risk of overfitting.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note reviews the National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) 2006–10 and the Annual Progress Report for Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR). The government of PDR approved the Sixth NSEDP 2006–10 (PRSP) in June 2006. The NSEDP provides a comprehensive strategy for development, with a range of medium- and long-term policies aimed at sustained growth and poverty reduction. IMF staff agrees with the poverty diagnosis in the NSEDP, but recognizes that achieving the Millennium Development Goals will require major efforts.
The Selected Issues paper discusses Cambodia’s poverty and growth, private sector development, public financial management reform, and debt sustainability. It summarizes the Poverty Assessment and describes the regime of tax incentives, costs, and limits for private investment. It also summarizes the assessment of Cambodia’s Public Expenditure Management system and Public Financial Management Reform Program. It highlights the key reform priorities, and provides historical background on Cambodia’s external and domestic debt. It also includes a statistical appendix and a summary of the tax system.
This paper on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) on the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) explains macroeconomic, structural, and social policies in support of growth and poverty reduction, as well as associated external financing needs and major sources of financing. The Lao PDR’s long-term national development goal is to be achieved through sustained equitable economic growth and social development, while safeguarding the country’s social, cultural, economic, and political identity. The government’s sustained effort to eradicate poverty will become a mass mobilization exercise, empowering local communities and providing a coherent framework for mutually supportive actions by all stakeholders.
This Status Report summarizes the main steps that have been undertaken since the last progress report to finalize the National Poverty Eradication Program (NPEP) of Lao People's Democratic Republic. The NPEP is a comprehensive framework for growth and development, with a focus of an in-depth improvement of the poverty situation in the poorest districts. It is the government's operational planning instrument, based on active participation at all levels, to achieve growth and poverty eradication. The NPEP monitoring will be completed by a separate monitoring of the progress achieved toward the MDGs.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.
This annual publication is a record of the IMF's Annual Meeting and contains the opening and closing addresses of the Chairman of the Board of Governors, presentation of the Annual Report by the Managing Director, statements of Governors, committee reports, resolutions, and a list of delegates. Usually published in March.