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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy rebounded strongly from the pandemic recession last year while prudent macroeconomic management maintained robust buffers. But the war in Ukraine and the international sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus have resulted in significant spillovers to Moldova, with implications yet to fully play out. At the outbreak of hostilities, FX market pressures triggered significant foreign currency interventions and bank deposit withdrawals, while dollarization has intensified. Moldova has received the highest per capita inflow of Ukrainian refugees (17 percent of the total population), of which about 100,000 refugees (4 percent of the total population) remain in Moldova. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Belarusian economy is in a cyclical recovery, inflation is at historically low levels and the exchange rate has been broadly stable. Although macroeconomic policy frameworks have improved, there is a need to reduce deep seated vulnerabilities such as rapidly rising public debt, high dollarization, and limited trade and financing diversification. In addition, reforms of the large state-owned enterprise sector are critical to tackle inefficiencies and increase potential growth. Risks ahead are elevated; notably, Belarus could lose significant oil-related discounts and transfers due to internal tax changes in Russia, but the authorities are confident of a successful outcome to the ongoing negotiations.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Belarus

International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
In coordination with the Republic of Belarus (RB) Ministry of Finance (MF), the latest regular International Monetary Fund (IMF) Statistics Department (STA) mission for providing technical assistance (TA) in the area of government finance statistics (GFS) worked in Minsk November 13–14. That mission’s chief objective was to inventory progress in the area of government finance statistics in the Republic of Belarus since the previous mission and to assist the MF in improving the quality of statistical data. Government finance statistics provide a comprehensive conceptual and accounting basis suitable for the analysis and assessment of fiscal policy, especially the performance of any country’s general government sector (GGS). One of the biggest pluses of implementing GFS methodology in budgeting is achieving coordination among budgeting, financial reporting and statistics. The use of the same terminology by those engaged in budgeting, reporting and statistics guarantees a common understanding among all interested parties. The comparability of numbers, tables and accounts is substantially enhanced, and productivity and the timeliness of data access are thereby increased.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
In consultation with the Republic of Belarus Ministry of Finance (MoF), a government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission from the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) visited Minsk from November 13 through 24, 2017. The main objective of the mission was to take stock of the progress in government finance statistics in the Republic of Belarus and to provide assistance to the MoF in improving the quality of statistical data. Government finance statistics provide a comprehensive conceptual and accounting framework suitable for the analysis and evaluation of fiscal policy, and in particular the performance of the general government sector of any country. One of the biggest advantages of the introduction of GFS methodology into budgeting is the achievement of consistency in budgeting, financial reporting, and statistics. Use of the same terminology by those engaged in budgeting, reporting, and statistics should ensure common understanding among all of the stakeholders. The comparability of numbers, tables, and accounts is significantly enhanced, which means an improvement in productivity and in the timely availability of data.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

KEY ISSUESContext: Attempts to boost activity with policy stimulus, in lieu of much-needed structural reform, have failed to raise growth and contributed to large external imbalances. Adverse developments in the region further cloud the outlook. High financing needs and low buffers leave Belarus highly dependent on external financial support. The risk of disorderly adjustment remains high.Challenges: Mitigating immediate risks and facilitating external adjustment through a sharp change in macroeconomic policies. Advancing the transition to a market-based economy to raise sustainable growth.Policy recommendations:• Halt wage increases and reduce subsidized lending to slow demand growth;• Reduce foreign exchange interventions and tighten monetary policy to facilitate external adjustment;• Enhance market orientation of the economy through a rapid phase-out of price controls and mandatory targets and by privatization of state-owned enterprises.

International Monetary Fund

The staff report on Belarus’ Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement is examined. Belarus is beginning to emerge from the crisis. Output loss has been limited relative to neighbors, inflation has fallen, the foreign exchange market has stabilized, and de-dollarization is under way, which is likely a sign of returning confidence. However, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks. The current account deficit remains high and reserves low, despite substantial support, including from the IMF. The authorities have taken measures to close a financing gap during the program period created by a shortfall in external financing.

International Monetary Fund

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that Belarus has so far escaped a significant fall in output, despite a sharp fall in external demand. GDP declined 0.5 percent year over year in the first eight months of 2009, comparing favorably to Belarus’ main trading partners. Economic activity has been bolstered by strong domestic demand, especially for housing construction financed under government programs. Executive Directors have applauded the authorities’ commitment to a tight fiscal policy, with revenue shortfalls being offset by spending restraint while protecting priority social spending.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper highlights the growth process in Belarus, seeking to identify its main sources and assess its sustainability. It complements the IMF staff report, which placed considerable emphasis on macroeconomic policies. It provides an overview of additional important factors underlying Belarus’s recent economic performance. It presents some further insights on the likely future path of main macroeconomic variables. The analysis suggests that, although several aspects of Belarus’s macroeconomic performance have been unusual, it is clear that domestic policies and favorable exogenous factors have combined to boost growth in recent years.