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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Following two military coups in 2022, Burkina Faso remains committed to return to constitutional order, via democratic elections, by July 2024. Deviations from this timeline could put at risk the relationships with financial partners and donors. Deteriorating security, unfavorable climate conditions, the disruption of international supply-chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are all factors that contributed to sharply rising food prices during 2021-2022. As a result, food access for poor households deteriorated significantly, and at present about 3.4 million Burkinabé (out of a population of 21.5 million) are in conditions of food crisis, while one province is in a situation of food emergency, as defined by the World Food Program. In addition, the adverse impact on the current account of price increases for key cereals and fertilizers is estimated to amount to 0.4 percent of GDP cumulatively during 2022 and 2023. The overall costs to fully address food insecurity over the next year are estimated to be up to 3.5 percent of GDP.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Cameroon, a fragile and conflict affected state, proved resilient to the COVID- 19 shock but is now facing increased challenges in an uncertain global environment. The recovery, which was supported by higher oil prices and non-oil production in 2021, continued in 2022, against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and tight global financial conditions. Cameroon has successfully completed two reviews since the approval in July 2021 of the three-year arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 483 million (about US$689.5 million, or 175 percent of quota). Completion of the third review will allow the total disbursement of SDR 55.2 million (about US$73.3 million).
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
After a three-year recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy is recovering, boosted by the reopening of tourism. However, higher global commodity prices briefly raised inflation to double-digit rates. Disciplined fiscal policies, buoyant revenue and remittances, and donor support have contributed to fiscal and external stability. The banking system has remained resilient to the economic downturn, although there has been some deterioration in asset quality. Pressures on correspondent banking relationships continue. With the pandemic-driven decline in investment, as well as rising numbers of seasonal workers abroad, output is projected to remain well below pre-pandemic trends.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Growth, at 2.7 percent, in 2022–23 is somewhat stronger than expected, on account of a broad-based post-COVID recovery and positive spillovers from the region. However, the medium-term outlook is weighed down by elevated commodity prices, tightening financial conditions, and a slowing global economy. Inflation, projected at 4.4 percent for 2022, has increased but remains moderate and should ease in the period ahead. The 2022 current account deficit has widened somewhat, due to a larger import bill; but international reserves have been buoyed by the rebound in travel receipts and remittances. Financial challenges in the electricity sector are exacerbating fiscal pressures, particularly as food subsidies have increased considerably on the back of high international prices. With elevated unemployment and commodity prices, social conditions remain challenging.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Supported by a large policy package, Rwanda’s economy rebounded in 2021 after contracting in the preceding year due to the COVID-19 shock. However, the country now faces multi-faceted challenges—pandemic scars, headwinds from the war in Ukraine, and climate-related shocks, meanwhile inflationary pressures have increased markedly. Downside risks are significant from the war spillovers, through further pressures on energy, food, and fertilizer prices, global financial tightening, and slowdown in major trading partners, in addition to climate-related shocks. Against this backdrop, the authorities have requested a new Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to support their efforts in maintaining macroeconomic stability, advancing their reform agenda, including on climate to enhance Rwanda’s resilience to climate-related shocks, and insuring against downside risks. They will cancel the current PCI (expiring in June 2023) upon approval of the new PCI.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Following two years of COVID-19 challenges, Cameroon, the largest economy in the Central African Economic and Monetary Union (CEMAC), is facing a new policy environment. The nascent economic recovery from mid-2021, supported by higher oil prices and non-oil production, is now subject to greater uncertainties with spillovers from the war in Ukraine, high inflationary pressures, especially on food and fuel prices, and a tightening of global financial conditions. Low vaccination rates also leave the country vulnerable to further COVID-19 waves. In July 2021, the IMF’s Executive Board approved three-year arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 483 million (about US$689.5 million, or 175 percent of Cameroon’s quota) to support the country’s economic and financial reform program.