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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The FSSR mission team conducted a diagnostic review of CBK governance and of the financial system, undertook a stocktaking of the implementation of recommendations from the 2012 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and MCM TA, and proposed a TA Roadmap to support the efforts of the authorities to address key gaps and vulnerabilities. The IMF Statistics Department (STA) supported the mission with an assessment of the compilation of financial soundness indicators (FSIs), monetary and financial statistics, and balance sheet matrices (Annex I).
Nina Biljanovska, Lucyna Gornicka, and Alexandros Vardoulakis
An asset bubble relaxes collateral constraints and increases borrowing by credit-constrained agents. At the same time, as the bubble deflates when constraints start binding, it amplifies downturns. We show analytically and quantitatively that the macroprudential policy should optimally respond to building asset price bubbles non-monotonically depending on the underlying level of indebtedness. If the level of debt is moderate, policy should accommodate the bubble to reduce the incidence of a binding collateral constraint. If debt is elevated, policy should lean against the bubble more aggressively to mitigate the pecuniary externalities from a deflating bubble when constraints bind.
Ms. Julianne Ams, Mr. Tamon Asonuma, Mr. Wolfgang Bergthaler, Ms. Chanda M DeLong, Ms. Nouria El Mehdi, Mr. Mark J Flanagan, Mr. Sean Hagan, Ms. Yan Liu, Charlotte J. Lundgren, Mr. Martin Mühleisen, Alex Pienkowski, Mr. Gustavo Pinto, and Mr. Eric Robert

Abstract

“The IMF’s Role in the Prevention and Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises” provides a guided narrative to the IMF’s policy papers on sovereign debt produced over the last 40 years. The papers are divided into chapters, tracking four historical phases: the 1980s debt crisis; the Mexican crisis and the design of policies to ensure adequate private sector involvement (“creditor bail-in”); the Argentine crisis and the search for a durable crisis resolution framework; and finally, the global financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis, and their aftermaths.

Mr. Christian H Ebeke
The paper shows that investors value the adoption of structural reforms by lending at lower cost. The reform-induced reduction of long-term yields is bigger when reforms are initiated in good times and in countries facing high borrowing costs. Importantly, there is no statistical evidence that markets systematically punish countries that launch reforms concomitantly with fiscal stimulus. The paper also finds that the social context matters: structural reforms lead to a short-lived overshooting of yields when followed by strikes or lockouts. Controlling for endogeneity issues does not reject the central finding of the paper. These results are economically plausible and confirmed even after using sovereign credit ratings as an alternative dependent variable. These results have two main implications: (i) on average, labor market reforms lower borrowing costs; and (ii) country-specific circumstances also play a role.
International Monetary Fund
This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility respond to news about macroeconomic fundamentals. As in mature bond markets, macroeconomic surprises in external emerging bond markets are found to affect both conditional returns and volatility, with the effects on volatility being more pronounced and longer lasting than those on prices. Yet the process of information absorption tends to be more drawn out than in mature bond markets. International and regional macroeconomic news is at least as important as local news for both asset valuations and volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for the Republic of Korea focuses on the role of monetary policy in the current context of slowing growth and rising inflation pressures. Korea has not remained immune to the global slowdown, and with the cycle turning downward, the trade-off between inflation and growth is deteriorating. Subprime-related turbulences in financial markets add an extra element of uncertainty to the economic outlook, and have led to a noticeable increase in Korea’s stock market and exchange rate volatility.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
In early June, Rodrigo de Rato, a national of Spain, took over as head of the IMF, succeeding Horst Köhler, who resigned in early March. Before joining the IMF, de Rato served for nearly eight years in the Spanish government, most recently as Minister of Economy and Vice President for Economic Affairs (2000–2004). He also had a long political career, including a stint as a member of Spain’s parliament. Laura Wallace of the IMF Survey spoke with him about the forces shaping the global economic outlook and the ongoing strategic review of the IMF’s role.
Mr. Peter B. Clark and Mr. Haizhou Huang
We provide a model of contagion where countries borrow or lend for consumption smoothing at the market interest rate or a lower IMF rate. Highly indebted countries hit by large negative shocks to output will default. The resulting reduction in loanable funds raises interest rates, increases the vulnerability of other indebted countries, and can generate further rounds of defaults. In this environment the IMF can limit default and internalize the externality generated by contagion through its lending with conditionality. We characterize the IMF's optimal lending decision in mitigating the loss in world consumption.