A 9-month Staff Monitored Program (SMP) combined with a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 50 percent of quota (about US$174 million) was approved on March 30, 2021 to address BOP challenges and build a track record towards an upper credit tranche financial arrangement. This followed a disbursement under the RCF in November 2020 of 15 percent of quota (about US$52 million), which was the first-ever financial disbursement from the Fund to South Sudan. Progress has continued in implementing the revitalized peace agreement of 2018: following the formation of a unity government in February 2020 and the appointment of state governors in June 2020, the national parliament was sworn into office in August 2021. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with about 60 percent of the population facing high levels of acute food insecurity.
Near-term macroeconomic prospects continue to improve in the context of higher oil prices and a gradual global recovery from the pandemic shock, but the medium-term outlook remains challenging and highly uncertain. Oil production remains muted, debt and inflation remain elevated, and non-oil activity is expected to recover only gradually. However, continued strong fiscal performance (aided by higher oil revenues), exchange rate stabilization, and a return to positive non-oil growth would contribute to a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio this year, easing debt vulnerabilities.
Near-term macroeconomic prospects continue to improve in the context of higher oil prices and a gradual global recovery from the pandemic shock, but the medium-term outlook remains challenging and highly uncertain. Oil production remains muted, debt and inflation remain elevated, and non-oil activity is expected to recover only gradually. However, continued strong fiscal performance (aided by higher oil revenues), exchange rate stabilization, and a return to positive non-oil growth would contribute to a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio this year, easing debt vulnerabilities.
South Sudan is a very fragile post-conflict country. After five years of civil conflict, the warring parties came to an agreement for power-sharing in September 2018 and formed a unity government in February 2020. However, peace remains fragile in the face of difficult humanitarian and economic conditions. Already very high levels of poverty and food insecurity have been exacerbated by severe flooding in recent months. The floods (the worst in 60 years) have killed livestock, destroyed food stocks, and damaged crops ahead of the main harvest season. South Sudan’s economy has been hit hard by lower international oil prices following the COVID-19 pandemic.
After five years of civil conflict, the warring parties came to a peace agreement in September 2018. Until the COVID-19 crisis broke out, improved political stability and an uptick in international oil prices led to significant progress, with a rebound in economic growth, a decline in inflation, and a stabilization of the exchange rate. The COVID-19 pandemic is severely disrupting South Sudan’s economy, leading to a sharp decline in projected growth (-3.6 percent in FY20/21, about 10 percentage points below the pre-pandemic baseline) and a contraction of oil export proceeds—the main source of exports and fiscal revenue—which has given rise to urgent balance of payments needs and opened a large fiscal financing gap.
This paper discusses Niger’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Niger faces daunting development challenges, aggravated by terrorist incursions, climate change, and low uranium export prices. Presidential elections are due in late 2020. Reforms are advancing and economic activity is reasonably strong. Program implementation has been broadly satisfactory. All quantitative targets for end-June 2019 were met. However, a subsequent weakening of revenues, partly due to Nigeria’s closure of its borders to trade, as well as topped-up budget support, required mitigating policy measures and the adjustment of end-December 2019 targets. Structural reforms are advancing with delays. Niger can strengthen prospects for a successful transition by securing favorable contractual arrangements with foreign investors; establishing a framework for administering oil resources in line with good practices, notably channeling all revenues directly through the Treasury; and increasing spending on physical and human capital, while being mindful of the inherent volatility in natural resource revenues.
This paper discusses Niger’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Niger faces daunting development challenges, aggravated by terrorist incursions, climate change, and low uranium export prices. Presidential elections are due in late 2020. Reforms are advancing and economic activity is reasonably strong. Program implementation has been broadly satisfactory. All quantitative targets for end-June 2019 were met. However, a subsequent weakening of revenues, partly due to Nigeria’s closure of its borders to trade, as well as topped-up budget support, required mitigating policy measures and the adjustment of end-December 2019 targets. Structural reforms are advancing with delays. Niger can strengthen prospects for a successful transition by securing favorable contractual arrangements with foreign investors; establishing a framework for administering oil resources in line with good practices, notably channeling all revenues directly through the Treasury; and increasing spending on physical and human capital, while being mindful of the inherent volatility in natural resource revenues.
The Government is implementing a (i) Macroeconomic Stabilization Program, which is focused on strengthening fiscal and debt sustainability; reducing inflation; promoting a more flexible exchange rate regime; improving financial sector stability; and addressing pressures on correspondent banking relationships; and (ii) National Development Plan for 2018–22 to address structural bottlenecks; and promote human development, public sector reform, economic diversification, and inclusive growth. The authorities also focus on improving governance and fighting corruption.
This paper discusses Chad’s Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), Augmentation of Access, Extension of the Current Arrangement, and Rephasing of Disbursements. The authorities in Chad have implemented substantial fiscal adjustment to balance the budget and contain the accumulation of arrears. Nonetheless, liquidity conditions remain very tight, and social tensions have risen recently owing to the large cuts in current spending. IMF staff supports the completion of the third and fourth reviews under the ECF arrangement, the waivers of nonobservance of PCs on the nonaccumulation of domestic arrears and nonaccumulation of external arrears.