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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is still unfolding around the globe. In Asia, as elsewhere, the virus has ebbed in some countries but surged in others. The global economy is beginning to recover after a sharp contraction in the second quarter of 2020, as nationwide lockdowns are lifted and replaced with more targeted containment measures.

Manoj Atolia, Mr. Prakash Loungani, Milton Marquis, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
This paper takes a fresh look at the current theories of structural transformation and the role of private and public fundamentals in the process. It summarizes some representative past and current experiences of various countries vis-a-vis structural transformation with a focus on the roles of manufacturing, policy, and the international environment in shaping the trajectory of structural transformation. The salient aspects of the current debate on premature deindustrialization and its relation to a middle-income trap are described as they relate to the path of structural transformation. Conclusions are drawn regarding prospective future paths for structural transformation and development policies.
Rahul Anand, Mr. Kevin C Cheng, Sidra Rehman, and Ms. Longmei Zhang
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The Sixth Five Year Plan, as outlined in Bangladesh's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, targets strategic growth and employment. The medium-term macroeconomic framework plan entails the involvement of both the private and public sectors. Human resources development strategy programs reaching out to the poor and the vulnerable population, as well as environment, climate change, and disaster risk management, have been included in the plan. Managing regional disparities for shared growth and strategy for raising farm productivity and agricultural growth have been outlined. Diversifying exports and developing a dynamic manufacturing sector are all inclusive in the proposed plan.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The September 2008 issue examines key issues facing low-income countries, including how they should respond to high oil and food prices. Some African economies are now successfully attracting international investors and are seen as a new tier of "frontier" emerging markets. Separate articles look at problems of aid effectiveness, aid predictability, and aid fragmentation. Other articles include an account by Eswar S. Prasad and Raghuram G. Rajan of their new report on financial sector reforms in India; Martin Ravallion and Dominique van de Walle draw lessons on reducing poverty from Vietnam's agrarian reforms; Sanjeev Gupta and Shamsuddin Tareq make a strong case for sub-Saharan countries to mobilize their domestic revenue bases. In addition, Simon Willson profiles Beatrice Weder di Mauro, the first woman on Germany's Council of Economic Experts; and the outgoing IMF Chief Economic Simon Johnson talks about the new drivers of global growth-emerging markets.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Le numéro de septembre 2008 penche sur des questions importantes pour les pays à faible revenu, dont la réponse à apporter au niveau élevé des produits du pétrole et des denrées alimentaires. Certains pays d'Afrique parviennent aujourd'hui à attirer les investisseurs internationaux et sont considérés comme une nouvelle catégorie de pays « préémergents ». D'autres articles sont consacrés aux problèmes de l'efficacité de l'aide de développement, de sa prévisibilité et de sa fragmentation. Autres articles : un résumé par Eswar S. Prasad et Raghuram G. Rajan de leur nouveau rapport sur les réformes du secteur financier en Inde ; Martin Ravallion et Dominique van de Walle tirent les leçons des réformes agraires du Vietnam en ce qui concerne la réduction de la pauvreté ; Sanjeev Gupta et Shamsuddin Tareq exposent les raisons pour lesquelles les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne doivent renforcer leurs sources de revenus. En outre, Simon Willson dresse le portrait de Beatrice Weder di Mauro, première femme à siéger au conseil économique de l'Allemagne, et Simon Johnson, conseiller économique sortant du FMI, parle des nouveaux moteurs de la croissance économique : les marchés émergents.