Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Andrew Berg, and Siddharth Kothari
Do structural reforms that aim to boost potential output also change the distribution of income? We shed light on this question by looking at the broad patterns in the cross-country data covering advanced, emerging-market, and low-income countries. Our main finding is that there is indeed evidence of a growth-equity tradeoff for some important reforms. Financial and capital account liberalization seem to increase both growth and inequality, as do some measures of liberalization of current account transactions. Reforms aimed at strengthening the impartiality of and adherence to the legal system seem to entail no growth-equity tradeoff—such reforms are good for growth and do not worsen inequality. The results for our index of network reforms as well as our measure of the decentralization of collective labor bargaining are the weakest and least robust, potentially due to data limitations. We also ask: If some structural reforms worsen inequality, to what degree does this offset the growth gains from the reforms themselves? While higher inequality does dampen the growth benefits, the net effect on growth remains positive for most reform indicators.
Mr. Magnus Saxegaard, Ms. Michaela Erbenova, and Ms. Yan Liu
This paper reviews Latvia’s efforts to manage the increase in debt distress resulting from the unwinding of the 2000-07 credit boom and spillovers from the global financial crisis. The authorities have designed a strategy that strengthens incentives for marked-based debt resolution by improving the legal framework for credit enforcement, introducing tax incentives for debt write-downs, and strengthening financial sector supervision. These measures have started to yield results, but further steps are needed to speed up bankruptcy procedures and reduce credit enforcement costs. Latvia’s experience with market-based debt resolution may provide insights on managing debt distress in other countries with limited fiscal resources.
Ms. Lusine Lusinyan, Aliona Cebotari, Ricardo Velloso, Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis, Mr. Amine Mati, Murray Petrie, and Mr. Paolo Mauro
This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks, including from unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables and banking crises, which can have major consequences for countries fiscal and public debt sustainability. It builds on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries to provide practical suggestions on how to promote disclosure of such risks and on risk mitigation and management. The paper was written in response to requests from IMF member countries for advice on this subject. The paper also includes an example of a possible statement of fiscal risks.
A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.
Russia Rebounds analyzes Russia’s dramatic economic recovery since the country’s 1998 financial crisis, emphasizing macroeconomic issues and fiscal and banking sector reforms. The crisis was a massive shock to the system and a considerable surprise to both Russians and foreign investors, who a year before had come to think that the worst of the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy was over. Macroeconomic performance since the crisis has been impressive. The book assesses the contribution of various factors underlying this recovery and highlights key policy challenges to ensure its sustainability.
La política fiscal influye en el desarrollo sostenible a través de sus efectos en el crecimiento, el medio ambiente y el desarrollo de los recursos naturales. ¿Qué relaciones existen entre la política fiscal y el desarrollo sostenible y de qué manera el FMI procura promover el desarrollo sostenible a través de su asesoramiento sobre políticas? ¿Qué lecciones se han extraído hasta ahora y de qué manera los gobiernos, la comunidad internacional y las instituciones financieras internacionales pueden respaldar mejor el desarrollo sostenible?
La politique budgétaire influe sur le développement durable par les effets qu'elle exerce sur la croissance économique, sur l'environnement et sur la mise en valeur des ressources. Quelles sont les relations entre la politique budgétaire et le développement durable, et comment le FMI s'efforce-t-il de promouvoir le développement durable dans ses recommandations ? Quel est le bilan de l'expérience acquise à ce jour, et par quels moyens les pouvoirs publics, la communauté internationale et les institutions financières internationales peuvent-ils promouvoir plus efficacement le développement durable ?
Fiscal policy affects sustainable development through its effects on growth, the environment, and resource development. What are the relationships between fiscal policy and sustainable development, and how does the IMF seek to promote sustainable development in its policy advice? What lessons have been learned so far, and how can governments, the international community, and international financial institutions more fully support sustainable development?
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Mr. Timothy D. Lane, Mrs. Marianne Schulze-Gattas, Mr. Tsidi M Tsikata, Mr. Steven T Phillips, Mr. Atish R. Ghosh, and Mr. A. J Hamann
This paper is a preliminary review of the design of and early experience with IMF-supported programs in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand during 1997-98. The review takes into account developments as of October 1998, and was the basis for a discussion of the programs by the IMF's Executive Board in December 1998.