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Cover IMF Working Papers
Emerging Markets: Prospects and Challenges
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Mr. Vladimir Klyuev
,
Leandro Medina
,
Mr. Boaz Nandwa
,
Dmitry Plotnikov
,
Francisco Schiffrer
, and
Di Yang
This article documents recent developments in emerging markets in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses their prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term. It argues that EM policymakers’ ability to grapple with an incomplete and uneven recovery will be constrained by high public debt and uncertain inflation prospects as well as external risks surrounding capital flows and exchange rate developments. The paper also discusses potential impact of a tightening in global financial conditions and appreciation of the US dollar that could be triggered by a general increase in risk aversion or a reassessment of the likely path of US monetary policy.
Keywords:
Emerging markets; COVID-19; Monetary Policy; EM inflation; emerging market bond yields; EM NEER; EM policymakers' ability; monetary policy tightening; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Inflation; Exchange rates; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

A year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent. The outlook will vary significantly across countries, depending on the pandemic’s path, vaccine rollouts, underlying fragilities, exposure to tourism and contact-intensive sectors, and policy space and actions. 2021 will be the year of policies that continue saving lives and livelihoods and promote recovery, while balancing the need for debt sustainability and financial resilience. At the same time, policymakers must not lose sight of the transformational challenges to build forward better and accelerate the creation of more inclusive, resilient, sustainable, and green economies. Regional and international cooperation will be key complements to strong domestic policies.

Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemic; recovery; financial crisis; public health; lockdown; social distancing; IMF staff calculation; net bank financing; financing risk; financing constraint; policy space constraint; Oil; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Government debt planning; Oil prices; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa