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Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Scenario Planning
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The scenario planning exercises help to draw out the surveillance priorities and stress- test the robustness of those priorities to uncertainties in the decade ahead. To inform the two priorities on confronting risks and uncertainties and mitigating spillovers, the scenarios illustrate how different shocks and alternative policy approaches carry their own risks and can have both positive and negative spillovers. The scenarios also illustrate some of the complex economic and non-economic factors that feed into the priority on economic sustainability and demonstrate how resource constraints and changing economic structures underpin the need for a unified policy approach.
Keywords:
IMF's transparency policy; policy approach; surveillance priority; projections of the IMF; service provision; Transnational corporations; Fintech; Global; Europe