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International Monetary Fund
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.
International Monetary Fund
Petroleum is now by far Timor-Leste’s largest source of income. If well harnessed, Timor-Leste’s petroleum wealth offers the potential for a more prosperous future. This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of how Timor-Leste’s Petroleum Fund functions. It considers the extent of the country’s petroleum wealth, discusses the developmental challenges, and outlines key challenges ahead. The paper depicts the origins of the fund and details its operating mechanisms. It also assesses how the fund has performed to date.