This paper discusses the definition and modelling of a universal basic income (UBI). After
clarifying the debate about what a UBI is and presenting the arguments in favor and against,
an analytical approach for its assessment is proposed. The adoption of a UBI as a policy tool is
discussed with regard to the policy objectives (shaped by social preferences) it is designed to
achieve. Key design dimensions to be considered include: coverage, generosity of the
program, overall progressivity of the policy, and its financing.
The Timorese economy has improved owing to high oil-financed public spending and a rebound in agriculture, non-oil growth. Despite high bank deposit growth, private sector credit has remained stagnant. The medium-term outlook for growth is positive. Timor-Leste’s key challenge remains to use its petroleum wealth wisely to build a strong non-oil economy and raise living standards. Improvements in financial management and budget execution will be important. Productivity-enhancing structural reforms and efforts to build labor skills would improve competitiveness in non-oil industries and services.
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.
Petroleum is now by far Timor-Leste’s largest source of income. If well harnessed, Timor-Leste’s petroleum wealth offers the potential for a more prosperous future. This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of how Timor-Leste’s Petroleum Fund functions. It considers the extent of the country’s petroleum wealth, discusses the developmental challenges, and outlines key challenges ahead. The paper depicts the origins of the fund and details its operating mechanisms. It also assesses how the fund has performed to date.
Timor–Leste’s initial efforts to develop a stable and healthy economy have been interrupted by the civil unrest of the past two years. The security situation remains fragile and an economic burden. The key challenge remains how to manage the abundant petroleum revenue to alleviate near-term social problems and develop a sustainable non-oil economy. Growth has rebounded in 2007, although the civil unrest continues to undermine the economy. Inflation has risen sharply, but remains low relative to regional comparators. Access to financial services remains limited and credit growth has stalled.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that despite unprecedented gains in living standards in some countries over the past few decades, poverty continues as a harsh reality in too much of the developing world. The causes lie in part with poor country governments that have not followed through on the policies and programs needed to accelerate growth and eradicate poverty. But they also reflect the uneven record of development assistance and protectionist trade policies and agricultural subsidies in industrial countries, which have dampened profitable investment and growth in the developing world.