Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Mai Chi Dao, Mr. Andreas A. Jobst, Ms. Aiko Mineshima, Ms. Srobona Mitra, and Mahmood Pradhan
This paper evaluates the impact of the crisis on European banks’ capital under a range of macroeconomic scenarios, using granular data on the size and riskiness of sectoral exposures. The analysis incorporates the important role of pandemic-related policy support, including not only regulatory relief for banks, but also policies to support businesses and households, which act to shield the financial sector from the real economic shock.
On October 30, 2020, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. Precautionary balances, comprising the Fund’s general and special reserves and the Special Contingent Account (SCA-1), are one element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. These balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. This review of the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances took place on the standard two-year cycle, although it was delayed by a few months to allow for an assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Fund financial risks. In conducting the review, the Executive Board applied the rules-based framework agreed in 2010.
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of Finance & Development focuses on dark web of secret transactions that enable tax evasion and avoidance, money laundering, illicit financial flows, and corruption. Demands on government resources are building—to boost growth in some advanced economies, build infrastructure in emerging markets, and improve health and education in the developing world. IMF research shows that countries with lower levels of perceived corruption have significantly less waste in public projects. Among low-income countries, the share of the budget dedicated to education and health is one-third lower in more corrupt countries. The rise of digital finance, crypto assets, and cybercrime adds to the challenges. Consider the so-called dark web, a hidden marketplace for everything from stolen identities to arms and narcotics. Improving governance is not easy; it requires sustained effort over the long term.
Mr. Nathaniel G Arnold, Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu, H. Elif Ture, Hou Wang, and Jiaxiong Yao
This note outlines a concrete proposal for a euro area
central fiscal capacity (CFC) that could help smooth both country-specific and
common shocks. Specifically, it proposes a macroeconomic stabilization fund
financed by annual contributions from countries that are used to build up
assets in good times and make transfers to countries in bad times, as well as a
borrowing capacity in case an exceptionally large shock exhausts the fund’s
assets. To address moral hazard risks, transfers from the CFC—beyond a country’s
own net contributions—would be conditional on compliance with the EU fiscal
rules. The note also discusses several features aimed at avoiding permanent
transfers between countries and making the CFC function as automatically as
possible—to limit the scope for disputes over its operation—both of which are
important points to make it politically acceptable.
Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Ms. Deniz O Igan, Elsie Addo Awadzi, Mr. Marc C Dobler, and Mr. Damiano Sandri
This SDN revisits the debate on bank resolution regimes, first by presenting a simple model of bank insolvency that transparently describes the trade-off involved between bail-outs, bail-ins, and larger capital buffers. The note then looks for empirical evidence to assess the moral hazard consequences of bail-outs and the systemic spillovers from bail-ins.
This paper reviews the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances, using the framework approved by the Board in 2010. The review takes place on the standard two-year cycle and assesses developments since the last review in 2016.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note evaluates the progress achieved by the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) in strengthening banking supervision in Bulgaria. Progress in responding to the recommendation of the 2015 Basel Core Principles Assessment is under way. As part of the reforms initiated in October 2015, the BNB has put in place a new governance model to enhance the effectiveness of supervision. The activities of the Banking Supervision Department (BSD) will now be governed by new formal policies adopted by the Governing Council (GC). Through a new quarterly report, the GC is now better informed on banking risks and progress in addressing them. The BSD is also subject to annual internal audit.
This paper reviews the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances, using the framework approved by the Board in 2010. The review takes place on the standard two-year cycle. The paper discusses developments since the last review in 2014 and revisits several issues discussed at that time.
The framework provides an indicative range for the target for precautionary balances linked to credit outstanding, and allows for judgment in setting this target. A reserve coverage ratio of 20-30 percent draws on approaches in other IFIs, adapted to the circumstances of the Fund, and is a guide for determining the target. At the same time, Directors have emphasized the continued importance of judgment and Board discretion in light of a broad assessment of financial risks facing the Fund.
Scope and strategy: This paper reviews access limits and surcharge policies in the Fund’s General Resources Account (GRA). It builds on the preliminary Executive Board discussion that took place in May 2014, against the backdrop of the 14th Review quotas expected to become effective early in 2016, which will on average double individual members’ quotas. At the meeting in 2014, most Directors considered that a moderate increase in normal access limits in SDR terms would broadly restore the normal Fund access to levels considered acceptable in 2009, and saw merit in adjusting the surcharge threshold to allow for a moderate increase in the SDR value of credit not subject to the charge.