Mr. Tushar Poddar, Mr. Mangal Goswami, Mr. Juan Sole, and Victor Echévarria Icaza
This paper seeks to understand how interest rates are formed in Lebanon, by focusing on the pass-through from benchmark rates, prevailing liquidity conditions, and the main characteristics of the Lebanese economy, notably its open capital account, fixed exchange rate, high government borrowing requirement, large public debt, and high degree of deposit dollarization. We find that international interest rates are an important element in the determination of interest rates in Lebanon. In particular, the pass-through of global benchmark rates to interest rates on sovereign bonds is about 70 percent. The less-than-complete pass-through could be attributed to a home-bias effect reflecting a relatively stable and dedicated investor base. The study also shows that interest rates in Lebanon are affected by liquidity conditions as well as perceived sovereign risk.
Antonio Garcia Pascual, Mr. Jorge Cayazzo, Mrs. Socorro Heysen, and Miss Eva Gutierrez
The paper presents a supervisory framework that addresses the vulnerabilities of partially dollarized banking systems. The tendency to underprice systemic liquidity risk and currency-induced credit risk creates vulnerabilities that need supervisory responses. The framework seeks to induce agents to better internalize risks by implementing a risk based approach to supervision, following the risk management guidelines of the Basel Committee, and by establishing buffers to cover higher liquidity and solvency risks. The paper also shows that most dollarized countries have addressed their liquidity vulnerabilities, but few have addressed those arising from currency-induced credit risks.