This paper analyzes the experiences of emerging market economies (EMEs) that have liberalized capital flows over the past 15 years with respect to macroeconomic performance and risks to financial stability. The results of the panel data regressions indicate that greater openness to capital flows is associated with higher growth, gross capital flows, and equity returns and with lower inflation and bank capital adequacy ratios. The effects vary depending on thresholds. As a potential application of these findings, the paper explores the possible effects of liberalization on China by applying the coefficients of explanatory variables to the corresponding variables of China in 2012–16.
This paper investigates whether balance-sheet conditions of firms and their main banks matter for firm investment behavior using dynamic corporate panel data in Japan for the period 1985-95. It finds that smaller non-bond issuing firms were facing liquidity constraints; these firms’ balance-sheet conditions (the debt asset ratios) affected their investment from the midst of the bubble era by influencing main banks’ lending to them; and the deterioration of their main banks’ balance-sheet conditions constrained these firms’ investment from about 1993. These findings highlight the potential macroeconomic impact and importance of the credit channel of monetary policy, and support the case of a credit crunch facing small Japanese firms during this period.