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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Guinea’s 2016–20 National Economic and Social Development Plan (PNDES). The PNDES represents the second generation of planning under the Third Republic, after the 2011–15 Five-Year Plan. Through the 2016–20 PNDES, the authorities intend to address the various development challenges posed by the socioeconomic and environmental situation while ensuring post-Ebola public health surveillance and alignment with international development agendas. The principal beneficiaries of the PNDES are the Guinean populations, but particularly poor and vulnerable groups, the government itself, the private sector, and the regions, including urban and rural areas.
Mariusz A. Sumlinski
Concentrated distribution of international reserves is puzzling. I show that the growth rates of international reserves bear only a very weak relationship to their initial stocks (scaled by GDP or in absolute terms), and that, by implication, the cross-sectional distribution of reserves conforms to Zipf's law. The law states that the size of reserves is inversely related to their ranking. Evidence in favor of the law is strong and time robust. I compare the crosssection distribution of international reserves embedded in the WEO projections to that implied by Zipf's law and find that international reserves are much less concentrated in the WEO projections than implied by Zipf's law.
Mr. Aleksandar Zaklan, Mr. Paolo Mauro, Martín Minnoni, and Mr. Andre Faria
We trace the history of where and why investors from the most advanced countries directed funds, ultimately helping finance economic development in emerging market countries. To do this, we analyze the determinants of international investors' willingness to hold the external liabilities issued by emerging market countries, through cross-country regressions for both prices (bond spreads) and quantities (bond market capitalization or stocks of external liabilities) estimated at various points during two waves of financial globalization (1870-1913 and the present time). The data are drawn from primary sources for the historical period, and the much-expanded, new vintage of the Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2006) data set for the modern period. The results suggest that, throughout the past one and a half centuries, a combination of human capital (including informal human capital) and institutional quality has been a key determinant of emerging market countries' ability to attract international investors.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines the education system and public investment in Portugal. Both areas are generally considered as critical for Portugal’s prospects for sustaining or accelerating the drive toward real income convergence. Moreover, both areas absorb a substantial share of public resources and thus have important implications for fiscal balances, which are, under European Monetary Union, constrained by the Stability and Growth Pact. The paper assesses the performance of the Portuguese education system and delineates a possible agenda for reform. It also attempts to shed light on the role of public investment in Portugal.
Mr. Philip R. Gerson
This paper examines a two-sector aggregative growth model with human capital and educated unemployment. In the model, a tuition subsidy may lead to a long-run decline in the educated fraction of the population, because it may decrease the long-run per capita stock of physical capital in the economy, tending to reduce the output of the education sector and the incentives for workers to enroll in school. Thus, cuts in education subsidies undertaken by countries in Africa for adjustment reasons may actually lead to long-run increases in the educational attainment of their populations.