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Jihad Dagher
Financial crises are traditionally analyzed as purely economic phenomena. The political economy of financial booms and busts remains both under-emphasized and limited to isolated episodes. This paper examines the political economy of financial policy during ten of the most infamous financial booms and busts since the 18th century, and presents consistent evidence of pro-cyclical regulatory policies by governments. Financial booms, and risk-taking during these episodes, were often amplified by political regulatory stimuli, credit subsidies, and an increasing light-touch approach to financial supervision. The regulatory backlash that ensues from financial crises can only be understood in the context of the deep political ramifications of these crises. Post-crisis regulations do not always survive the following boom. The interplay between politics and financial policy over these cycles deserves further attention. History suggests that politics can be the undoing of macro-prudential regulations.
Mr. Heiko Hesse

Abstract

The Global Financial Crisis has been a watershed event not only for many advanced economies but also emerging markets around the world. This book brings together research and policy work over the last nine years from staff at the IMF. It covers a wide range of issues such as the origins of the financial crisis, the policy response, spillovers and contagion, case studies, bank stress testing, and debt sustainability and sovereign debt restructuring.

Min Liao, Tao Sun, and Jinfan Zhang
China’s financial system has become very large, diversified, and interconnected. This changing financial landscape could potentially produce systemic risks, arising primarily from growing financial interconnectedness. The paper argues that, to address the potential systemic risks, Chinese authorities should further strengthen internal coordination, notably by institutionalizing better information collection and sharing among regulators, as well as enhancing coordinated and comprehensive analysis of systemic risk.
Dyna Heng, Anna Ivanova, Rodrigo Mariscal, Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan, and Joyce Wong
This paper examines the state of financial development in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region as well as potential growth and stability implications from further development. The analysis suggests that access to financial institutions has expanded notably in the past decade, and the region compares favorably with other emerging market regions on this dimension. The region, however, continues to lag behind peers on broader financial development, especially with respect to markets, though there is substantial heterogeneity across countries. Financial systems in many LAC countries are also underdeveloped relative to their macroeconomic fundamentals. Further financial development could convey net benefits to the region, provided there is adequate regulatory oversight to prevent excesses.
Ms. Ratna Sahay, Mr. Martin Cihak, Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, Mr. Adolfo Barajas, Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena, Ran Bi, Miss Yuan Gao, Ms. Annette J Kyobe, Lam Nguyen, Christian Saborowski, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, and Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
La crisis financiera mundial puso de relieve los peligros de los sistemas financieros que han crecido demasiado con demasiada rapidez. En este documento se reexamina la profundización financiera, centrándose el análisis en lo que pueden aprender los mercados emergentes de la experiencia de las economías avanzadas. En él se observa que los beneficios de la profundización financiera para el crecimiento y la estabilidad siguen siendo importantes en el caso de la mayoría de los mercados emergentes, pero hay límites en cuanto a su tamaño y velocidad. Cuando la profundización financiera sobrepasa la fortaleza del marco de supervisión, lleva a una excesiva asunción de riesgo e inestabilidad. Algo alentador es que las reformas regulatorias que promueven la profundidad del sector financiero son esencialmente las mismas que aquellas que contribuyen a una mayor estabilidad. Una mejor regulación —no necesariamente más regulación— determina entonces mayores posibilidades de lograr tanto desarrollo como estabilidad.
Ms. Ratna Sahay, Mr. Martin Cihak, Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, Mr. Adolfo Barajas, Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena, Ran Bi, Miss Yuan Gao, Ms. Annette J Kyobe, Lam Nguyen, Christian Saborowski, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, and Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
The global financial crisis experience shone a spotlight on the dangers of financial systems that have grown too big too fast. This note reexamines financial deepening, focusing on what emerging markets can learn from the advanced economy experience. It finds that gains for growth and stability from financial deepening remain large for most emerging markets, but there are limits on size and speed. When financial deepening outpaces the strength of the supervisory framework, it leads to excessive risk taking and instability. Encouragingly, the set of regulatory reforms that promote financial depth is essentially the same as those that contribute to greater stability. Better regulation—not necessarily more regulation—thus leads to greater possibilities both for development and stability.
Ms. Ratna Sahay, Mr. Martin Cihak, Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, Mr. Adolfo Barajas, Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena, Ran Bi, Miss Yuan Gao, Ms. Annette J Kyobe, Lam Nguyen, Christian Saborowski, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, and Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
The global financial crisis experience shone a spotlight on the dangers of financial systems that have grown too big too fast. This note reexamines financial deepening, focusing on what emerging markets can learn from the advanced economy experience. It finds that gains for growth and stability from financial deepening remain large for most emerging markets, but there are limits on size and speed. When financial deepening outpaces the strength of the supervisory framework, it leads to excessive risk taking and instability. Encouragingly, the set of regulatory reforms that promote financial depth is essentially the same as those that contribute to greater stability. Better regulation—not necessarily more regulation—thus leads to greater possibilities both for development and stability.
International Monetary Fund
Various indicators place Cyprus’s banking system soundness ahead of emerging countries but behind advanced economies. This report discusses financial sector stability in Cyprus, using a combination of accounting-based and market-based indicators, and stress tests. Cypriot commercial banks are weaker than their counterparts in Greece and also less stable than cooperative banks in Cyprus. Credit risk appears as the main source of risk in the banking sector, with demand for real estate slowing, declining property price growth as well as Cyprus’s high household indebtedness.