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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost ½ percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 4¾ percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost ½ percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 4¾ percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost ½ percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 4¾ percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

La economía mundial creció vigorosamente en el primer semestre de 2007, aunque la turbulencia en los mercados financieros ha empañado las perspectivas. Aunque el pronóstico para 2007 se ha visto poco afectado, la proyección de base con respecto al crecimiento mundial en 2008 se ha reducido casi medio punto porcentual con respecto al presentado en la actualización de las perspectivas de la economía mundial, en julio de 2007. Aun así, se alcanzaría con un sólido crecimiento mundial de 4¾%, respaldado por los sanos fundamentos económicos y el fuerte impulso de las economías de mercados emergentes. Sin embargo, las perspectivas están claramente sujetas a riesgos a la baja, centrados en torno a la preocupación de que se profundicen las tensiones en los mercados financieros y provoquen una desaceleración mundial más pronunciada. Por lo tanto, en lo inmediato las autoridades deben centrar la atención es restablecer condiciones más normales en los mercados y salvaguardar la expansión. Otros riesgos que se ciernen sobre las perspectivas se derivan de las posibles presiones inflacionarias, la volatilidad en los mercados de petróleo y el impacto en los mercados emergentes de una fuerte afluencia de divisas. Al mismo tiempo, problemas a más largo plazo, como el envejecimiento de la población, la creciente resistencia a la globalización y el calentamiento global, también son motivo de preocupación.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

La croissance mondiale a été vigoureuse au premier semestre de 2007, bien que les remous sur les marchés financiers aient assombri les perspectives. Si les prévisions pour 2007 n’ont guère été touchées, la projection de référence pour la croissance mondiale en 2008 a été révisée à la baisse de près de ½ point par rapport à la mise à jour des Perspectives de l’économie mondiale en juillet 2007. La croissance mondiale resterait quand même vigoureuse, à 4¾ %, portée par des paramètres fondamentaux généralement solides et une forte expansion dans les pays émergents. Cependant, les perspectives ont bien plus de chances d’être révisées à la baisse qu’à la hausse, la principale crainte étant que les tensions sur les marchés financiers s’aggravent et provoquent un ralentissement mondial plus prononcé. Dans l’immédiat, les pouvoirs publics ont donc pour tâche de rétablir des conditions plus normales sur les marchés financiers et de préserver l’expansion. Les autres facteurs qui pèsent sur les perspectives sont le risque de tensions inflationnistes, la volatilité des marchés pétroliers et l’effet des entrées massives de devises sur les pays émergents. Par ailleurs, des problèmes à plus long terme tels que le vieillissement de la population, la résistance croissante à la mondialisation et le réchauffement planétaire sont une source de préoccupation.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost ½ percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 4¾ percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staf economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium tem. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.