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Mr. John C Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Mr. Jaime Guajardo, and Miss Nkunde Mwase
Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades. Although recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, a key question is whether they could unravel like some did in the past. This paper finds that recent takeoffs are associated with stronger economic conditions, such as lower post-takeoff debt and inflation levels; more competitive real exchange rates; and better structural reforms and institutions. The chances of starting a takeoff in the 2000s was triple that before the 1990s, with domestic conditions accounting for most of the increase. The findings suggest that if today’s dynamic developing economies sustain their improved policies; they are more likely to stay on course compared to many of their predecessors.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the sources of Mexico’s economic growth since the 1960s, and compares various decompositions of historical growth into trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflation process is assessed. The paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative productivity growth rates. The paper also describes the significant steps Mexico has taken to strengthen the structure of its public debt in recent years, both in terms of currency composition and maturity.

Abstract

Edited by Ana María Martirena-Mantel, this volume, published in Spanish and English, contains the papers presented at a seminar sponsored jointly by the IMF and the Instituto Torcuato di Tella of Argentina. The seminar was held in Don Torcuato, near Buenos Aires. The volume consists of six papers, commentaries, and an overview by the editor, who also acted as moderator at the seminar.