The lack of a clear link between general economic fundamentals and export diversification indicators in the literature has fueled the believe that industrial policies are an absolute requisite to diversify exports. This paper, however, does find a strong statistical connection between horizontal policies and diversification by making two novel changes to traditional methodologies: using export categories that lead to diversification (for example, manufactures) as dependent variables, and using a gravity-equation regression setting. Proximity to other economies explains about a third of cross-country heterogeneity in targeted exports, and four fifths together with horizontal policies. Australia, Chile, and New Zealand emerge as new role models for diversification policies.
A technical Assistance (TA) Mission was conducted by CAPTAC-DR1 from May 14 to 18, 2018 with the objective of supporting the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador (CBR) in its efforts to strengthen its national accounts statistics for decision making. The TA mission covered the following topics: compilation of an Input-Output Table (IOT) for 2014; as well as to follow up on the recommendations made in previous TA missions to disseminate Supply and Use Tables (SUT) for 2015 and thereafter, as part of the national accounts’ series with base year 2005. In addition, the mission provided training to the Department of National Accounts (DNA) team of the CBR in the methodological and conceptual aspects necessary for the analysis and application of the IOT as a statistical and analytical tool.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.
Camila Casas, Mr. Federico J Diez, Ms. Gita Gopinath, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark
and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We
model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by
three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input
use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency
exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or
origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies
is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange
rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency
relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy
targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations,
in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong
support for the dominant currency paradigm.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes economic performance of Ecuador under dollarization. The paper reviews the principal trade-offs normally associated with official dollarization, and their specific relevance to Ecuador. It discusses Ecuador’s performance under the dollarization regime, highlighting the country’s main achievements and challenges in the macroeconomic and structural areas. The paper draws some conclusions and discusses what dollarization implies for Ecuador’s reform agenda in the future. The paper also assesses sustainability of Ecuador’s fiscal policy and explores criteria that could guide the setting of fiscal policy in the future.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper examines recent economic developments and medium-term outlook for Liberia. This paper focuses on economic developments during 2003 and 2004 and the medium-term challenges of reconstruction. The paper explores the pros and cons of adopting full (de jure) dollarization in Liberia. It reviews the theoretical arguments for and against adopting dollarization and the associated empirical evidence. The choices of monetary and exchange rate regimes made by other post-conflict countries are presented. The paper also assesses whether Liberia, in its current post-conflict situation, could benefit from dollarization.
This paper describes that in developing countries, the moves toward more flexible exchange rate arrangements and liberalization of exchange controls often occurred in the context of comprehensive macroeconomic adjustment programs supported by the IMF. These programs featured a broad range of policy actions, including an increasing emphasis on structural reforms aimed at improving resource allocation and enhancing the supply response of the economy. With respect to restrictive systems, the trend toward liberalization of nontrade current and capital transactions continues, primarily because it is seen as ineffective, even counterproductive, to try to control such financial flows. This trend contrasts with trade where it appears that some major participants have been awaiting the outcome of the Uruguay Round before further reducing restrictions. A single currency peg has been the exchange arrangement most frequently used by developing countries, of which over one third currently have such an arrangement. This type of peg has the merit of being easy to administer and is generally chosen by countries that have a large share of foreign exchange transactions in the currency chosen as the peg.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that since its inception in 1956, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) has invested more than US$1.7 billion in nearly 300 enterprises in 62 developing countries in total projects costing about US$9 billion. The IFC is the affiliate of the World Bank, which has been given the specific task of furthering economic development by encouraging the growth of productive private enterprise in developing countries. The paper underscores that IFC plays an essentially catalytic role in generating investment funds from local and foreign sources.