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Mr. Plamen K Iossifov and Tomas Dutra Schmidt
We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995–2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity and solvency risk indicators tend to be counter-cyclical, whereas mispricing risk ones are procyclical, and they all lead the credit cycle. Our results lend support to high-level accounts that risks were underestimated by stress indicators in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications of conflicting risk signals would depend on the phase of the credit cycle.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Denmark’s insurance sector is highly developed with a particularly high penetration and density in the life sector. Traditionally, work-related life insurance and pension savings are offered as a combined package, and life insurance companies dominate the market for mandatory pension schemes for employees. The high penetration explains the overall size of the insurance sector, which exceeds those of peers from other Nordic countries and various other EU member states. Assets managed by the insurance industry amounted to 146 percent of the GDP at end-2018, compared to 72 percent for the EU average.
Mrs. Nina T Budina, Mr. Borja Gracia, Xingwei Hu, and Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs
This paper argues that asset price cycles have significant effects on fiscal outcomes. In particular, there is evidence of debt bias—the tendency of debt to increase over the cycle— that is significantly larger for house price cycles than stand-alone business cycles. Automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy generally respond to output fluctuations, whereas revenue increases due to house price booms are largely treated as permanent. Thus, neglecting the direct and indirect impact of asset prices on fiscal accounts encourages procyclical fiscal policies.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses findings of the Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Insurance Core Principles on Denmark. Insurance regulation in Denmark has a good level of compliance with the Insurance Core Principles. A particular strength of the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority’s approach is its close focus on key risks in the sector and its readiness to require action by companies to address vulnerabilities. Regular, even daily monitoring of market risk sensitivities is carried out on life insurers’ balance sheets. In nonlife insurance, regular testing of a number of key performance ratios helps to highlight potential weaknesses and to support early intervention. There is comprehensive oversight of the reinsurance programs of the nonlife companies in particular.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses findings of the Report on Observance of Standards and codes for Denmark. Denmark has a high level of compliance with the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision. The Danish Financial Supervisory Authority (DFSA) has the appropriate legal authority to carry out supervision effectively, and its risk based approach has focused well on the key elements of risk within its banking system. Its powers and supervisory approach have evolved significantly since the recent global crisis, and the DFSA emerged as a proactive supervisor. Its overall supervisory approach is sound, and the compliance with the credit-risk and capital adequacy related principles is uniformly high.
Boriana Yontcheva
This paper presents a dynamic game of strategic delegation between a principal and an agent. The principal can choose between two organizational designs: a traditional hierarchy where she retains authority over the choice of projects to be implemented or a delegation where she allows her agent to select the project. The key objectives of this model are to identify the long-run determinants of the principal’s choice and verify the impact of the authority allocation on the agent’s effort levels and on the principal’s payoffs. We apply the model to the relationships between institutional donors and nongovernmental organizations.