International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This paper presents the annual update of the quota database and extends the database by one year through 2018. The paper provides an overview of the data and of the methodology and covers the quota formula variables and calculated quota shares based on the current quota formula.
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission channels. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms, accounting for business cycle fluctuations, and generating relatively accurate forecasts of inflation and output growth.
Ms. Inci Ötker, David Vávra, Mr. Francisco F. Vazquez, Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome, Mr. Karl F Habermeier, Kotaro Ishi, Alessandro Giustiniani, and Turgut Kisinbay
This paper analyzes the monetary policy response to rising inflation in emerging and developing countries associated with the food and oil price shocks in 2007 and the first half of 2008. It reviews inflation developments in a sample of countries covering all regions and a broad range of monetary and exchange rate policy regimes; discusses the underlying causes of inflation; provides a synthesis of policy responses taken against the background of the conflicting objectives and trade-offs, the uncertainties regarding the nature of the shocks, and the additional challenges brought on by the global financial turmoil; and presents considerations for policy.
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, John Beirne, and Nicola Spagnolo
This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs), with a dummy capturing parameter shifts during turbulent episodes. LR tests suggest that mature markets influence conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. Conditional variances in most EMEs rise during these episodes, but there is only limited evidence of shifts in conditional correlations between mature and emerging markets.
This Selected Issues paper on Turkey describes the link between budget deficits and inflation. The paper outlines the key elements of the recent reforms and additional measures to reform the system. The study assesses the impact that inflation has had on the banking system, examines the sources of volatility of Turkey's external balance, and presents empirical estimates of the elasticities governing the behavior of exports and imports. The paper analyzes the costs of agricultural support policies along these methodological lines, and also provides a statistical appendix for the country.