This paper analyzes a small open economy model under inflation targeting. It shows why such a monetary regime is vulnerable to speculative attacks that take place over a short period rather than instantaneously. The speed at which the regime collapses, and the extent of reserve losses, are increasing in the central bank's explicit or implicit commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Attacks are therefore ranked, from most to least severe, as follows: Exchange rate targeting, CPI inflation targeting, domestic nontradables inflation targeting, and money targeting. Under inflation targeting the size of the attack is increasing in the tradables consumption share.
This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.
This paper reexamines Aizenman’s (1985) results on the effects of capital controls during unanticipated trade liberalization using an intertemporal optimizing monetary model. Unlike in Aizenman’s model, which is based on the currency substitution model, foreign money is an interest-bearing asset in this paper, and its major role is to smooth intertemporal consumption. With this modification, Aizenman’s results are reversed, thus showing that the effects of capital controls during trade liberalization would vary greatly depending on the role of foreign money in a country. The effects of an anticipated trade liberalization are also studied.
This paper develops a model merging the monetary approach to the balance of payments and a neoclassical growth model into a unified framework in which inflation, growth, and the balance of payments are simultaneously determined. The empirical part of the paper presents estimates of the key parameters of the model for a sample of seven diverse developing countries and tests the validity of a subset of the theoretical assumptions. The estimated model is then used for a variety of comparative static exercises, including the effects of fiscal and monetary policy changes, and devaluation.
This paper was originally prepared for a seminar of the Executive Board of the Fund. In the seminar, Executive Directors expressed a broad range of views with regard to both the adequacy of the Fund's approach to financial programming and the validity of the analysis presented in this paper.