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Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo and Mr. Krishna Srinivasan

Abstract

Brazil is at crossroads, emerging slowly from a historic recession that was preceded by a huge economic boom. Reasons for the historic bust following a boom are manifold. Policy mistakes were an important contributory factor, and included the pursuit of countercyclical policies, introduced to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis, beyond the point where they were helpful. More fundamentally, it reflects longstanding structural weaknesses plaguing the economy, that also help explain Brazil’s uninspiring growth performance over the past four decades.

Mr. Tobias Adrian, Mr. Douglas Laxton, and Mr. Maurice Obstfeld

Abstract

Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances.

Mr. Anoop Singh, Mr. Malhar S Nabar, and Mr. Papa M N'Diaye

Abstract

China's current account surplus has declined to around one-quarter the peak reached before the global financial crisis. While this is a major reduction in China's external imbalance, it has not been accompanied by a decisive shift toward consumption-based growth. Instead, the compression in its external surplus has been accomplished through increasing fixed investment so that it is now an even higher share of China's national economy. This increasing reliance on fixed investment as the main driver of China's growth raises questions about the durability of the compression in the external surplus and the sustainability of the current growth model that has had unprecedented success in lifting about 500 million people out of poverty over the last three decades. This volume examines various aspects of the rebalancing process underway in China, highlighting policy lessons for achieving stable, sustainable, and inclusive growth.

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Min Zhu

Abstract

The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face. It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.

Mr. Lamin Y Leigh and Mr. Ali M. Mansoor

Abstract

This book describes the reforms needed to move small middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa to advanced-economy status. The result of intense discussions with public officials in the countries covered, the book blends rigorous theory, econometrics, and practitioners' insights to come up with practical recommendations for policymakers. It spans topics from macroeconomic vulnerability and reserve adequacy to labor market institutions and financial inclusion. The book is a must-read for researchers interested in the economic issues facing developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Ms. Dora M Iakova, Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu, Gustavo Adler, and Mr. Sebastian Sosa

Abstract

En los últimos 15 años, los países de América Latina realizaron enormes avances en el fortalecimiento de sus economías y la mejora de las condiciones de vida. Si bien el producto cayó temporalmente durante la crisis financiera mundial, la mayoría de las economías registraron una rápida recuperación. Sin embargo, la actividad económica en toda la región se ha estado enfriando y la región se enfrenta a un período de desafíos crecientes. Este libro argumenta que América Latina puede estar a la altura de estos desafíos, y las autoridades de la región ya están implementando reformas en educación, energía y otros sectores. Pero es necesario, y posible, profundizar la búsqueda de mejores condiciones de vida para los habitantes de América Latina.

Ms. Dora M Iakova, Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu, Gustavo Adler, and Mr. Sebastian Sosa

Abstract

Over the past fifteen years countries in Latin America made tremendous progress in strengthening their economies and improving living standards. Although output fell temporarily during the global financial crisis, most economies staged a rapid recovery. However, economic activity across the region has been cooling off and the region is facing a more challenging period ahead. This book argues that Latin America can rise to the challenge, and policymakers in the region are already implementing reforms in education, energy, and other sectors. More is needed, and more is possible, in Latin America’s quest to continue to improve living standards.

Mr. Anoop Singh, Mr. Malhar S Nabar, and Mr. Papa M N'Diaye

Abstract

China's current account surplus has declined to around one-quarter the peak reached before the global financial crisis. While this is a major reduction in China's external imbalance, it has not been accompanied by a decisive shift toward consumption-based growth. Instead, the compression in its external surplus has been accomplished through increasing fixed investment so that it is now an even higher share of China's national economy. This increasing reliance on fixed investment as the main driver of China's growth raises questions about the durability of the compression in the external surplus and the sustainability of the current growth model that has had unprecedented success in lifting about 500 million people out of poverty over the last three decades. This volume examines various aspects of the rebalancing process underway in China, highlighting policy lessons for achieving stable, sustainable, and inclusive growth.

Mr. Hamid Faruqee and Mr. Krishna Srinivasan

Abstract

This book examines imbalances in seven major economies: China, France, Germany, India, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, evaluating key indicators agreed on by the G20 for identifying large imbalances, including public and private debt and private saving, and countries external position. The chapters describe a suite of corrective steps tailored for each country that, if implemented, could improve prospective economic outcomes, creating sustainable and balanced growth for these economies and serving as a model for other G20 countries.

Mr. Ashoka Mody

Abstract

Germany has been a central player in discussions on the future architecture of Europe, and has been called on to play a larger role in supporting global and, especially, European recovery from the financial crisis that triggered the Great Recession. This book focuses on the possible economic role of Germany and shows that the quantitative effects of a German fiscal stimulus would be small on the heavily indebted euro area periphery countries that most need the boost. The book finds that Germany itself faces a growth challenge and that efforts to raise its own growth potential are important for Germany, and that more rapid growth of domestic demand will more powerfully stimulate European economic growth through its expanded demand for imports.